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Current Win Probability
V-Varen Nagasaki 40.1%
Draw 26.5%
JEF United Chiba 33.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.4%
25.7%
31%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.1%
25.3%
30.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
JEF United Chiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
30%
20%
V Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 5 - 50%). JEF United will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%). Confidence interval (95%) for V-Varen Nagasaki: 19% โ 81%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 2 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 29. Arai I. 48. Teruyama H. 25. Kushibiki K. 7. Marcos Guilherme 6. Abe T. 5. Yamaguchi H. 8. Masuyama A. 34. Matsumoto T. 18. Yamasaki R. 10. Matheus Jesus
19. Suarez J. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 24. Toriumi K. 13. Suzuki D. 15. Mae T. 7. Tanaka K. 44. Shinada M. 10. Yokoyama A. 14. Tsubaki N. 20. Ishikawa D. 17. Hayashi M.
Substitutes
16. Emerson Deocleciano 31. Harada G. (G) 2. Iio R. 32. Joppu S. 33. Kasayanagi T. 38. Matsuzawa K. 14. Nagura T. 19. Sawada T. 3. Sekiguchi M.
29. Carlinhos 9. Goya H. 67. Hidaka M. 28. Kawano T. 5. Kobayashi Y. 18. Sugiyama N. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 4. Taguchi T. 38. Yoshida G.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.
Kobayashi Y.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Ishikawa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Hayashi M. ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
72', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
73', Masuyama A. ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
74', Tsubaki N. ↓, Sugiyama N. ↑,
74', Yokoyama A. ↓, Taguchi T. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Yamasaki R. ⚽, Yamaguchi H. (A),
82', Shinada M. ↓, Hidaka M. ↑,
86', Yamasaki R. ↓, Iio R. ↑,
86', Matsumoto T. ↓, Sekiguchi M. ↑,
90+5', Matheus Jesus ↓, Joppu S. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 4.
V-Varen Nagasaki is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
JEF United has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).
JEF United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).
Last Results with these Odds
V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.37%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Japan
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Goto M. (G) 
Marcos Guilherme 
Suarez J. (G) 
