Match Info

J1 League - Round 15

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.82	3.05	2.48	Watch
	2.94	3.25	2.58
	2.82	3.09	2.67	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.78	3.12	2.69	Watch
	2.45	3.15	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.45)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	2.61 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
33.8%

Draw
30.3%

Fagiano Okayama
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29.3%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

29.9%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	30%	60%

V Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Okayama will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hatano G. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 4. Dudu Giusti 22. Onaga H. 3. Sekiguchi M. 24. Yamada R. 21. Diego Pituca 17. Takahata K. 41. Hasegawa M. (C) 8. Iwasaki Y. 9. Thiago	1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 6. Omori H. 51. Shirai K. 5. Ogura K. 28. Matsumoto M. 45. Browne N. 22. Ichimi K. 8. Esaka A. (C) 98. Werik Popo
Substitutes
11. Campbell N. 1. Goto M. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 10. Matheus Jesus 34. Matsumoto T. 5. Yamaguchi H. 18. Yamasaki R. 23. Yoneda S.	4. Abe K. 52. Hamada T. (G) 27. Kimura T. 9. Leo Gaucho 99. Lucao 26. Motoyama H. 66. Nishikawa J. 7. Takeuchi R. 88. Yamane T.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Iwasaki Y. ⚽, Hatano G. (A),
34', Iwasaki Y. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
37', Browne N. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Thiago ⚽, Yamada R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
46', Browne N. ↓, Yamane T. ↑,
46', Tagami D. ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Werik Popo ⚽, Esaka A. (A),
62', Werik Popo ↓, Lucao ↑,
64', Yamada R. ↓, Yamaguchi H. ↑,
72', Matsumoto M. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
72', Thiago ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
72', Dudu Giusti ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
72', Takahata K. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
90+2', Hasegawa M. 🟨,
90+4', Lucao 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

Recent form of V-Varen Nagasaki has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Okayama has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Okayama may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Shindo R. (Injury)

There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R. (Injury)

There are questionable in V-Varen Nagasaki: Arai I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Kudo K. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.7%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
03.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:2 penalties ✺
18.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
01.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	3:2 penalties ✺
11.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1
Japan J2 League
29.09.24	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
12.05.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
16.07.23	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2
17.05.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
17.09.22	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:0
29.05.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0

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