Match Info

J3 League - Round 26

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium (Okinawa)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Ryūkyū		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.25	2.55
	2.3	3.25	2.72	Watch
	2.31	3.35	2.99
	2.83	3.67	2.23	Watch
	2.29	3.3	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.83)	3.36 ↑ (3.3)	2.65 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
38%

Draw
27.3%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

27.8%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

26.6%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ryūkyū's performance.

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thespakusatsu Gunma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Ryūkyū - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ryūkyū (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Thespakusatsu (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ryūkyū (votes: 1 - 50%). Thespakusatsu (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sato H. (G) 3. Kikuchi S. 14. Suzuki J. 28. Tsuha J. 15. Araki R. 18. Hiramatsu S. 55. Koki Y. 20. Nagai S. 11. Ishiura T. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 89. Takagi D.	13. Kondo I. (G) 43. Nose S. 3. Ohata R. 22. Takahashi Y. 20. Shimokawa T. 36. Adachi S. 37. Sehata G. 4. Funabashi Y. 7. Nishimura Y. 27. Fujimura R. 10. Takazawa Y.
Substitutes
9. Asakawa H. 37. Gotoda K. 39. Ihara A. 8. Iwabuchi R. 13. Iwamoto S. 50. Kawashima K. (G) 7. Motegi S. 23. Sota K. 22. Yamato Y.	9. Aoki S. 32. Kawata A. 14. Kikuchi K. 21. Kim Je-hee (G) 38. Konishi H. 49. Kotake S. 30. Koyanagi T. 35. Tamashiro T. 8. Yamauchi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Takazawa Y. ⚽,
36', Takahashi Y. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Tomidokoro Y. (Pen),
45+3', 2 - 1, Tomidokoro Y. ⚽, Tsuha J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Takagi D. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
57', Koki Y. ↓, Iwamoto S. ↑,
57', Ishiura T. ↓, Sota K. ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Adachi S. ⚽, Takahashi Y. (A),
65', Fujimura R. ↓, Konishi H. ↑,
68', Nagai S. 🟨,
71', Takazawa Y. ↓, Kawata A. ↑,
71', Shimokawa T. ↓, Yamauchi R. ↑,
73', Nagai S. ↓, Motegi S. ↑,
83', Funabashi Y. ↓, Kotake S. ↑,
83', Sehata G. ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Sota K. ⚽, Asakawa H. (A),
90+5', Tsuha J. 🟨,
90+5', Tsuha J. ↓, Yamato Y. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 15 and 16)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ryūkyū won 1.

Ryūkyū has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Thespakusatsu is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ryūkyū won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.4:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ryūkyū won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ryūkyū - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.38%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Gifu - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Ryūkyū - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	Fukushima United - Ryūkyū	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTTWT
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
31.08.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Osaka	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kagoshima United	2:3 ✺
19.07.25	Tochigi City - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
15.02.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	0:0
Japan J2 League
14.09.22	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	0:0
16.04.22	Ryūkyū - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1
18.09.21	Ryūkyū - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1
14.03.21	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	0:2
14.10.20	Ryūkyū - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1
16.08.20	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	0:1

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