Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	São Bernardo		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.7	3.6
	2.35	2.85	3.10
	2.2	2.88	3.55
	2.34	2.97	3.75
	2.47	2.83	3.28	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.55
	2.31	2.77	3.62
	2.21	2.85	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.45)	2.84 ↓ (3.15)	3.51 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
40.5%

Draw
32.8%

Ceará
26.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

29.6%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

29%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ceará might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ceará could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

São Bernardo - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 3. Helder Maciel 35. Jemerson 33. Mario Sergio 14. Lucas Lima 8. Foguinho (C) 26. Dudu Miraima 7. Lucas Rian 9. Felipe Garcia 37. Davi D.	1. Richard (C) 18. Julio Cesar 3. Thalisson 33. Eder 6. Savio 21. Giovanni Pavani 81. Joao Gabriel 31. Bryan Borges 29. Vina 20. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 7. Lopez R.
Substitutes
97. Augusto 89. Daniel Amorim 27. Echapora 10. Fabricio Daniel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 70. Lucas Reis 90. Luizao 77. Marcao Silva 6. Para 29. Pedrinho	88. Caio 60. Enzo Lodovico 71. Gabriel Rocha 35. Giulio 10. Juan Alano 11. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 8. Matheus Araujo 22. Matheus Nogueira (G) 40. Melk 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Helder Maciel ⚽, Mario Sergio (A),
31', Julio Cesar 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 4)
46', Thalisson ↓, Giulio ↑,
46', Lopez R. ↓, Lucca ↑,
46', Lucas Rian ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
46', Davi D. ↓, Echapora ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ⚽, Giulio (A),
55', Eder 🟨,
56', Rodrigo Ferreira ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
56', Foguinho ↓, Hyoran ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Hugo Sanches ⚽,
62', 2 - 2, Vina ⚽, Ferreira Berrondo M. N. (A),
66', Giovanni Pavani ↓, Richardson ↑,
68', Felipe Garcia 🟨,
74', 2 - 3, Joao Gabriel ⚽, Giulio (A),
81', 3 - 3, Pedrinho ⚽, Mario Sergio (A),
84', Lucas Lima ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
85', Vina ↓, Melk ↑,
89', Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
90+1', 3 - 4, Enzo Lodovico ⚽,
90+12', Lucas Rian 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

São Bernardo could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Lucas Fernandes (Injury) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Pedro Vitor (Inactive) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Gilmar (Injury) Ramos R. (Inactive) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	34	12	10	12	46:37	9	46
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37:42	-5	43

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.04%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	São Bernardo - Avaí	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	São Bernardo - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTLL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.26	Ceará - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
17.07.26	América Mineiro - Ceará	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	Ceará - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Goiás - Ceará	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Juventude - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Ceará - São Bernardo	1:1
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	0:1 penalties

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