Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.35	3.4	1.9
	3.9	3.3	1.98	Watch
	4	3.1	1.85
	4.5	3.34	1.89	Watch
	4.33	3.33	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.15 ↑ (3.3)	3.27 ↑ (3.15)	1.9 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
22.4%

Draw
28.5%

Corinthians
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

29.2%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.2%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Bernardo's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

São Bernardo - Corinthians Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 21. Hugo Sanches 3. Helder Maciel 5. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 6. Para 11. Pedro Vitor 77. Marcao Silva 17. Romisson 28. Joao Paulo 9. Felipe Garcia	1. Hugo Souza (G) 20. Milans P. 5. Andre Ramalho 4. Joao Pedro 21. Matheus Bidu 35. Charles Rigon 29. Allan 49. Andre 8. Garro R. 11. Vitinho 56. Gui Negao
Substitutes
27. Echapora 10. Fabricio Daniel 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 30. Junior Urso 7. Lucas Rian 19. Neto Costa 22. Pablo Dyego 29. Pedrinho 16. Pedro Vieira Ferraz J. 32. Rodrigo Andrade 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 31. Victor Andrade	54. Bahia 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 3. Gabriel Paulista 59. Joao Vitor 51. Kaue (G) 31. Kayke 2. Matheuzinho 18. Pedro Raul 14. Raniele 9. Yuri Alberto
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Pedro Vitor 🟨,
6', Augusto 🟨,
45+3', Marcao Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Marcao Silva ↓, Junior Urso ↑,
62', Pedro Vitor ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
62', Gui Negao ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
63', Allan 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Andre ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),
71', Augusto ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
72', Vitinho ↓, Kayke ↑,
72', Allan ↓, Raniele ↑,
78', Romisson ↓, Rodrigo Andrade ↑,
79', Hugo Sanches ↓, Rodrigo Ferreira ↑,
90', Yuri Alberto ↓, Gabriel Paulista ↑,
90', Milans P. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Corinthians has had a series of home games.

In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Foguinho (Red Card) Gonzaga W. (Red Card)

There will not play in Corinthians: Hugo (Injury) Kaio Cesar (Injury) Martinez J. (Inactive) Pereira M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 27.89%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	São Bernardo - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLWT
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Corinthians - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
Supercopa do Brasil
01.02.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0
Copa do Brasil
14.03.24	São Bernardo - Corinthians	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.01.24	São Bernardo - Corinthians	1:0
09.02.23	São Bernardo - Corinthians	2:0
16.02.22	Corinthians - São Bernardo	3:0
23.03.16	São Bernardo - Corinthians	0:3
11.03.15	Corinthians - São Bernardo	1:0

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