Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	SCCN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Corinthians		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3	2.85	2.57	Watch
	2.88	2.88	2.68	Watch
	3.03	2.96	2.79
	2.94	2.99	2.69	Watch
	2.88	2.75	2.63
	2.97	2.96	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.78)	2.9 ↓ (3.18)	2.68 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
32.1%

Draw
32.6%

Palmeiras
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

29.1%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.6%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Corinthians - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 71.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 7. Breno Bidon 14. Raniele 8. Garro R. (C) 49. Andre 9. Yuri Alberto 31. Kayke	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 12. Khellven 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
29. Allan 54. Bahia 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 59. Joao Vitor 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 77. Lingard J. 55. Machado I. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M. 11. Vitinho	56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 37. Riquelme Fillipi
Coaches
Diniz F.	Martins J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Andre 🟥,
44', Matheuzinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
71', Matheuzinho 🟥,
71', Giay A. ↓, Luighi ↑,
71', Khellven ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
72', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
73', Garro R. ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
76', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
83', Marlon Freitas ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
83', Kayke ↓, Lingard J. ↑,
90+3', Raniele 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.

Corinthians has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palmeiras is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Corinthians: Charles Rigon (Inactive) Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Gui Negao (Inactive) Hugo (Knee Injury) Joao Pedro (Inactive) Kaio Cesar (Thigh Injury) Milans P. (Inactive)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Arias J. (Yellow Cards) Figueiredo (Injury) Jefte (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Piquerez J. (Injury) Vitor Roque (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.31%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Palmeiras - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.64%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Platense - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Corinthians - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
01.04.26	Fluminense - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
19.03.26	Chapecoense - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLTT
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Junior Barranquilla - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:1
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:2
30.07.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.03.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0
16.03.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:1

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