Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Suriname	QN Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Flamengo		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	1.19	5.75	12
	1.28	5.75	10.50
	1.23	4.8	14.5
	1.27	5.84	14.5
	1.31	5.21	10.84
	1.25	5.5	13
	1.24	6.03	14.1	Watch
	1.42	4.3	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.4)	5.4 ↑ (4.23)	12.11 ↑ (7.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
74.6%

Draw
17.6%

Corinthians
7.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

21.9%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.2%

20.9%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Flamengo's performance.

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flamengo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Flamengo - Corinthians Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 13. Danilo 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 11. Lucas Paqueta 19. Plata G. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro	1. Hugo Souza (C) 20. Milans P. 4. Joao Pedro 55. Machado I. 26. Angileri F. 77. Lingard J. 14. Raniele 35. Charles Rigon 23. Pereira M. 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 27. Bruno Henrique 15. Carrascal J. 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 30. Freitas J. 21. Jorginho 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 14. Valencia A. 44. Vitao	80. Alex Santana 7. Breno Bidon 3. Gabriel Paulista 8. Garro R. 46. Hugo 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 21. Matheus Bidu 2. Matheuzinho 18. Pedro Raul 11. Vitinho 84. Yago Melo
Coaches
Jardim L.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Charles Rigon 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Lucas Paqueta ⚽,
50', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
66', Dieguinho ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
67', Charles Rigon ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
67', Angileri F. ↓, Matheus Bidu ↑,
67', Milans P. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
73', Pereira M. ↓, Garro R. ↑,
74', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
74', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Gui Negao ⚽, Kaio Cesar (A),
78', Samuel Lino 🟨,
79', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Jorginho ↑,
79', Plata G. ↓, Carrascal J. ↑,
86', Lucas Paqueta ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
87', Breno Bidon 🟨,
89', 2 - 1, Bruno Henrique ⚽, Freitas J. (A),
90+2', Pulgar E. 🟨,
90+5', Garro R. 🟨,
90+7', Jorginho 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 2.

Flamengo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Corinthians is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:14. (average 1.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 1.5:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Remo - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWL
- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Corinthians - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Corinthians - Santos	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Coritiba - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.08.26	Corinthians - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:1
Supercopa do Brasil
01.02.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:2
27.04.25	Flamengo - Corinthians	4:0
Copa do Brasil
20.10.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	0:0
02.10.24	Flamengo - Corinthians	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	2:1

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