Match Info

Paulista - Round 6

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Corinthians		Capivariano

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.7
	1.53	4.15	6.43
	1.58	4.12	5.33	Watch
	1.5	3.75	5.5
	1.55	4.33	5.68	Watch
	1.5	4.2	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.43)	4.1 ↓ (4.3)	5.81 ↓ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
61.1%

Draw
22.8%

Capivariano
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

21.8%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

20.7%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Corinthians - Capivariano Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Capivariano will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 50%). Capivariano (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Corinthians (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 3 - 60%). Capivariano (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Felipe Longo (G) 20. Milans P. 5. Andre Ramalho 4. Joao Pedro 46. Hugo 35. Charles Rigon 23. Pereira M. 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 11. Vitinho 56. Gui Negao	12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Lucas Dias 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 8. Octavio 5. Bruno Silva (C) 11. Felipe Azevedo 10. Carlos Eduardo 7. Mike 9. Rodolfo
Substitutes
49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 10. Depay M. 61. Dieguinho 13. Gustavo Henrique 51. Kaue (G) 31. Kayke 21. Matheus Bidu 2. Matheuzinho 18. Pedro Raul 14. Raniele 9. Yuri Alberto	16. Balao 20. Cassio Gabriel 24. Maranhao 22. Marcos Moser 21. Matheus Guilherme 18. Ravanelli 13. Ricardo Cerqueira 14. Tarcisio 1. Teixeira M. (G) 17. Thiago Moraes 15. Vinicius Guedes 19. Vinicius Popo
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Kaio Cesar ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
23', Guilherme Nogueira 🟨,
40', Hugo ↓, Matheus Bidu ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Mike ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Dieguinho ⚽, Matheus Bidu (A),
56', Octavio 🟨,
58', Wendel Lomar 🟨,
60', Octavio ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Gui Negao ⚽, Dieguinho (A),
70', Bruno Silva ↓, Vinicius Guedes ↑,
72', Gui Negao ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
73', Garro R. ↓, Depay M. ↑,
73', Vitinho ↓, Kayke ↑,
76', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
76', Rodolfo ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
78', Vinicius Popo 🟨,
80', 3 - 0, Kayke ⚽, Depay M. (A),
82', Pereira M. 🟨,
88', Matheus Bidu 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Capivariano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Martinez J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Capivariano: Baianinho (Yellow Cards) Ricardo Cerqueira (Inactive)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Gabriel Paulista (Injury)

There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Corinthians won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Supercopa do Brasil
01.02.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Velo Clube - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLWTT
- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	São Bernardo - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.16	Corinthians - Capivariano	2:1
22.03.15	Capivariano - Corinthians	2:3

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