Match Info

Paulista A4 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	São Caetano		Penapolense

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.85	3.4
	2.08	2.88	3.38
	2.16	2.86	3.57	Watch
	2.15	2.7	3.4
	2.13	2.89	3.5
	2.55	2.85	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.55)	2.84 ↓ (2.85)	3.33 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Caetano
41.1%

Draw
31.8%

Penapolense
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

31.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

33.1%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Caetano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Caetano's performance.

Penapolense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penapolense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Caetano than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penapolense than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

São Caetano - Penapolense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', 1 - 1, ⚽,
73', 2 - 1, ⚽,
75', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Second leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

São Caetano is Qualified for Paulista A4 (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Penapolense is Qualified for Paulista A4 (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

São Caetano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Penapolense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, São Caetano won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, São Caetano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD São Caetano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
25.04.26	Penapolense - São Caetano	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	São Caetano - Jacareí	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Jacareí - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	São Caetano - VOCEM	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense - São Caetano	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWTLL
- CA Penapolense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
25.04.26	Penapolense - São Caetano	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Penapolense - Taquaritinga	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Taquaritinga - Penapolense	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Colorado Caieiras - Penapolense	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Penapolense - Araçatuba	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
25.04.26	Penapolense - São Caetano	2:1
21.02.26	São Caetano - Penapolense	0:2
16.03.25	Penapolense - São Caetano	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.04.13	Penapolense - São Caetano	1:1

São Caetano - Penapolense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide