Match Info

Gaucho - Troféu Farroupilha - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio 19 de Outubro (Ijuí)


	São Luiz		Caxias

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.88	2.7	Watch
	2.95	2.95	2.37
				Watch
	2.57	2.94	2.92
	2.60	2.85	2.94	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.7
	2.62	3.01	2.83	Watch
	2.57	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.98)	2.9 ↑ (2.81)	2.77 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Luiz
35.1%

Draw
31.7%

Caxias
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

32.3%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

31.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Luiz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caxias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

São Luiz - Caxias Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - São Luiz (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Luiz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 21. Eduardo 3. Marcao 4. Gabriel Santiago 2. Lucas Hian 11. Rogerio Sena 5. Lucas Hulk 8. Araujo (C) 16. Higor 9. Felipe Rangel 7. Felipe Tontini	1. Marcelo (G) 2. Ronei 3. Robles Fuentes A. 4. Mauricio Ribeiro 6. Roberto 8. Dudu Vieira 5. Lucas Candido 11. Calyson 10. Yann Rolim 7. Douglas Skilo (C) 9. Jeam
Substitutes
22. Bruno (G) 13. Caetano 20. de Lima G. N. 18. Denis Germano 19. DG 15. Escuro 14. Heitor 6. Marcio Duarte 12. Prezzi (G) 10. Valber Junior 17. Victor Jesus 25. Vidmar	20. Arthur Viana 17. Breno Santos 22. Gustavo Nescau 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 15. Joilson 12. Leo Lang (G) 18. Matheus Nunes 13. Thiago Ennes 16. Victor Sa 23. Vitor Feijao 14. Windson
Coaches
Marques P.	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Calyson ⚽,
25', Lucas Hulk 🟨,
29', 0 - 2, Jeam (Penalty Awarded),
33', Lucas Candido 🟨,
39', Eduardo ↓, Escuro ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Felipe Tontini ↓, Vidmar ↑,
46', Lucas Hulk ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
46', 1 - 2, Victor Jesus ⚽, Rogerio Sena (A),
54', Dudu Vieira 🟨,
56', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
56', Dudu Vieira ↓, Breno Santos ↑,
58', Gabriel Santiago 🟨,
63', Ronei 🟨,
65', Yann Rolim ↓, Matheus Nunes ↑,
65', Calyson ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
68', Victor Sa 🟨,
73', Felipe Rangel ↓, Denis Germano ↑,
75', Jeam ↓, Thiago Ennes ↑,
82', Rogerio Sena ↓, Valber Junior ↑,
84', Marcelo 🟨,
87', Douglas Skilo 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Luiz won 0.

Recent performances by São Luiz have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caxias is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, São Luiz won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, São Luiz won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.02.26	Internacional RS - São Luiz	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	São Luiz - Ypiranga	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTTWL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.02.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
26.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Caxias	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Juventude - Caxias	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
11.01.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1
08.02.25	Caxias - São Luiz	1:0
27.01.24	Caxias - São Luiz	2:2
12.02.23	Caxias - São Luiz	3:1
Brazilian Serie D
25.06.22	Caxias - São Luiz	2:1
07.05.22	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.22	São Luiz - Caxias	1:0

São Luiz - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide