Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:00	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	08:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	19:00	Paramount+
Bulgaria	01:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	19:00	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	00:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	02:00	Silk Sport 1, Silk Universal
Germany	00:00	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Indonesia	05:00	Mola TV
Israel	01:00	Sport 4
Italy	00:00	Como TV
Kosovo	00:00	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	06:00	Mola
Mexico	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
New Zealand	10:00	beIN Connect
Peru	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	23:00	Sport TV1
Russia	01:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	00:00	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	00:00	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	00:00	LaLiga+
Turkey	01:00	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	19:00	Disney+
Usa	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	São Paulo		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.33	9.5	Watch
	1.37	4.25	9.3
	1.38	4.45	10.71
	1.38	4.65	8.13	Watch
				Watch
	1.39	4.46	10.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)	4.43 ↑ (4.34)	9.59 ↑ (8.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
68.7%

Draw
21.4%

LDU Quito
9.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.5%

21.9%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

20.7%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

São Paulo - LDU Quito Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - São Paulo (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (C) 35. Sabino 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 77. Rigoni E. 21. Bobadilla D. 29. Pablo Maia 13. Diaz E. 15. Rodriguinho 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira	1. Valle G. (G) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 4. Ade R. 33. Quinonez L. 14. Quintero J. (C) 15. Villamil G. 8. Gruezo C. 20. Cornejo F. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 9. Alzugaray L. 16. Medina J.
Substitutes
25. Alisson 19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 16. Luiz Gustavo 22. Mailton 20. Marcos Antonio 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell 50. Young (G)	6. Aimar D. 10. Alvarado A. 21. Castillo E. 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 3. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 7. Pastran L.
Coaches
Crespo H.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Cornejo F. 🟨,
36', Quintero J. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Medina J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bobadilla D. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
46', Franco A. ↓, Mailton ↑,
67', Ferreira ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
67', Rigoni E. ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
67', Medina J. ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
80', Alzugaray L. ↓, Pastran L. ↑,
80', Cornejo F. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
82', Rodriguinho ↓, Alisson ↑,
90', Ramirez Leon B. J. ↓, Mina R. ↑,
90+5', Robert Arboleda 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, São Paulo is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Soares C. (Illness)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Ferreira (Injury)

There are questionable in LDU Quito: Alvarado A. (Inactive) Cabeza A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLW
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	LDU Quito - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.25	Libertad Loja - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Macará	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	El Nacional - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:0
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	São Paulo - LDU Quito	1:1 penalties
24.08.23	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
22.09.20	LDU Quito - São Paulo	4:2
11.03.20	São Paulo - LDU Quito	3:0

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