Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 26

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.71	Watch
	3.6	3.3	1.85
	4.05	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.41	3.5	1.85
	4.90	3.63	1.69	Watch
	3.8	3.1	1.85
	4.13	3.51	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↑ (4.2)	3.42 ↓ (3.47)	1.8 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

El Nacional
21.9%

Draw
26.9%

LDU Quito
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

26.7%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

25.9%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for LDU Quito have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

El Nacional - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): LDU Quito will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 7. Chala J. 32. Bedoya A. 5. Flor F. 77. Hernandez B. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 18. Rivera B. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 99. Reasco D. 20. Guisamano J.	22. Dominguez A. (C) 14. Quintero J. 4. Ade R. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 33. Quinonez L. 8. Gruezo C. 10. Alvarado A. 20. Cornejo F. 9. Alzugaray L. 16. Medina J. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J.
Substitutes
56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 10. Borja J. 11. Branda V. 1. Chala L. (G) 30. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 60. Maya J. 2. Mazamba S. 26. Mena A. 25. Montano M. 28. Puente J.	6. Aimar D. 24. Cabeza A. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 26. Duran P. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 3. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 7. Pastran L. 1. Valle G. (G) 15. Villamil G.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Reasco D. ⚽, Chala J. (A),
34', Alzugaray L. 🟨,
39', Bedoya A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cornejo F. ↓, Villamil G. ↑,
49', Velez C. 🟨,
57', Alvarado A. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
57', Quintero J. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
57', Bedoya A. 🟨,
64', Diaz M. 🟨,
68', Alzugaray L. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
68', Hernandez B. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
68', Guisamano J. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
77', Ramirez Leon B. J. 🟨,
78', Medina J. 🟨,
80', Gruezo C. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
89', Reasco D. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
89', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Borja J. ↑,
90+4', Duran P. 🟨,
90+5', Chala J. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, LDU Quito is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.3:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

LDU Quito - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 51.16%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.08.25	Delfín - El Nacional	0:3 ✺
10.08.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Independiente del Valle - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
25.07.25	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Orense - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLTT
- LDU Quito
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.08.25	LDU Quito - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.25	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.25	LDU Quito - El Nacional	2:2
Ecuadorian Super Cup
01.02.25	El Nacional - LDU Quito	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Copa
02.10.24	LDU Quito - El Nacional	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.24	LDU Quito - El Nacional	1:1
06.04.24	El Nacional - LDU Quito	1:2
18.08.23	LDU Quito - El Nacional	0:0
19.03.23	El Nacional - LDU Quito	0:2

Upcoming Matches