Match Info

Date: 9 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Meraviglia F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Benevento

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.6	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.5
	2.9	2.95	2.6
	2.9	2.9	2.55
	2.98	3.03	2.77
	2.8	3	2.62
	2.78	3.16	2.6	Watch
	2.85	2.95	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.01)	3.01 ↑ (3)	2.59 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
32.6%

Draw
31.2%

Benevento
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

31.4%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

33%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	64.7%	17.6%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Benevento will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 10 and 15).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 19 (10.15%), has project points - 43, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 8 (7.11%), has project points - 54, has currently - 8, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (38%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 34, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Südtirol is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Benevento is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Südtirol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
01.10.22	Palermo - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
17.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
10.09.22	Como - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
04.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Pisa	2:1 ✺
28.08.22	Reggina - Südtirol-Alto Adige	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 WTWWL
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
02.10.22	Benevento - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
16.09.22	Brescia - Benevento	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Benevento - Cagliari	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Venezia - Benevento	0:2 ✺
28.08.22	Benevento - Frosinone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLLWW

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