Match Info

Date: 2 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Benevento		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.4	4
	1.85	3.3	4.5
	1.87	3.3	4.1
	1.89	3.48	4.66
	2.05	3.2	3.7
	1.85	3.52	4.25	Watch
	1.84	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.1)	3.37 ↑ (3.28)	4.21 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie B with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Soccer Plus

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
49.7%

Draw
27.9%

Ascoli
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

28.2%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benevento's performance.

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ascoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	36.8%	26.3%

Benevento - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Ascoli will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benevento: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 15 and 13).

Benevento has the most likely position - 6 (7.15%), has project points - 55, has currently - 7, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (41%), has a chance of promoted (18%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Ascoli has the most likely position - 13 (6.72%), has project points - 50, has currently - 8, has a chance of relegated (18%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (27%), has a small chance of promoted (8%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 35, small importance 29, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benevento won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Benevento is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Benevento won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 20-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
16.09.22	Brescia - Benevento	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Benevento - Cagliari	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Venezia - Benevento	0:2 ✺
28.08.22	Benevento - Frosinone	2:1 ✺
20.08.22	Genoa - Benevento	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWWT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
17.09.22	Ascoli - Parma	1:3 ✺
10.09.22	Perugia - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
03.09.22	Ascoli - Cittadella	0:0 ✺
27.08.22	Palermo - Ascoli	2:3 ✺
20.08.22	Ascoli - SPAL	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.05.22	Ascoli - Benevento	0:1
16.02.22	Benevento - Ascoli	0:2
18.09.21	Ascoli - Benevento	0:2
31.07.20	Ascoli - Benevento	2:4
29.12.19	Benevento - Ascoli	4:0
30.03.19	Ascoli - Benevento	2:2
03.11.18	Benevento - Ascoli	1:2

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