Match Info

AZERBAIJAN: Premier League - Round 20

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Referee: Aghayev A. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Kapaz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.1	3
	2.15	3.15	3.15	Watch
	2.21	3.35	3.13
	2.14	3.38	3.08	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.18	3.33	3.22
	2.15	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.22)	3.22 ↓ (3.47)	3.12 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
42.4%

Draw
28.3%

Kapaz
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

26.3%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

25.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Kapaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kapaz than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Səbail - Kapaz Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Səbail will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Kapaz will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mustabazada A. (G) 18. Ahmadov S. 14. Allouch S. 20. Celik M. 8. Larrucea G. 3. Lytvyn D. (C) 7. Maddi 96. Muradov I. 77. Nabiyev F. 4. Nikolic M. 99. Nshuti I.	1. Santos R. (G) 26. Almeyda V. 28. Ardazishvili R. 3. Ba M. 5. Huseynli R. 78. Khvalko E. (C) 12. Manafov T. 9. Pachu 7. Shahverdiyev E. 70. Suleymanov N. 29. Verdasca D.
Substitutes
22. Abbasov M. 19. Abdullayev S. 11. Abdullazada R. 10. Gomis D. 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 74. Nabiyev Y. 1. Quliyev H. (G) 83. Quliyev N. 16. Rustamov E. 88. Shiraliyev H. 5. Sofir G.	21. Cafarov C. 22. Huseynov M. (G) 15. Karimov C. 10. L'Koucha K. 88. Mabatshoev S. 6. Musayev N. 2. Qyrtymov I. 99. Samadov A. 17. Samadov U. 8. Tagiyev E.
Coaches
Huseynov C.	Bagirov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Maddi ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Suleymanov N. ↓, Cafarov C. ↑,
46', Almeyda V. 🟨,
56', Verdasca D. 🟨,
67', Almeyda V. ↓, Mabatshoev S. ↑,
67', Ardazishvili R. ↓, L'Koucha K. ↑,
75', Shahverdiyev E. ↓, Samadov A. ↑,
80', 🟨,
80', Nshuti I. ↓, Mammadov O. ↑,
80', Ahmadov S. ↓, Nabiyev Y. ↑,
83', Celik M. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Səbail won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Kapaz have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Səbail won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 29:15 (average 1.9:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Səbail won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:5 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.01.25	Sumgayit - Səbail	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Səbail - Zira	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Shamakhi - Səbail	0:0 ✺
07.12.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.24	Qaradağ Lökbatan - Səbail	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTLW
- FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
19.01.25	Kapaz - Turan Tovuz	5:2 ✺
20.12.24	Kapaz - Sumgayit	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Kapaz - Zira	0:4 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.24	Kapaz - İmişli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
03.11.24	Kapaz - Səbail	1:0
23.08.24	Səbail - Kapaz	4:0
14.04.24	Səbail - Kapaz	3:3
12.02.24	Kapaz - Səbail	1:4
25.11.23	Səbail - Kapaz	0:0
16.09.23	Kapaz - Səbail	0:3
01.04.23	Kapaz - Səbail	1:0

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