Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 13

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco)


	SB Castelo Branco		Fatima

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.25	4.35
	1.91	3.06	4.14	Watch
	1.91	2.9	3.9
	1.89	3.06	4.07
	1.93	2.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.64)	3.03 ↓ (3.4)	4.09 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
48.2%

Draw
29.7%

Fatima
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

26.5%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

25.3%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SB Castelo Branco's form might have worsened.

Fatima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SB Castelo Branco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatima than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

SB Castelo Branco - Fatima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 8).

SB Castelo Branco is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Fatima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, SB Castelo Branco is considered a favorite.

We predict that SB Castelo Branco will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, SB Castelo Branco won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, SB Castelo Branco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Samora Correia - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	5:0 ✺
29.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - SB Castelo Branco	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	SB Castelo Branco - Marinhense	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	SC Lusitânia - SB Castelo Branco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLWW
- CD Fatima
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Fatima - Eléctrico	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Vitória de Sernache - Fatima	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Fatima - Os Marialvas	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	SC Lusitânia - Fatima	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Naval - Fatima	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
26.01.25	Fatima - SB Castelo Branco	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
20.04.19	SB Castelo Branco - Fatima	2:0
09.12.18	Fatima - SB Castelo Branco	1:2

SB Castelo Branco - Fatima: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide