Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco)


	SB Castelo Branco		Os Marialvas

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.92	3.55
	2.2	2.79	3.44
	2.05	2.95	3.77	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.3
	2.05	3.18	3.59
	2.16	2.75	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.96)	2.91 ↓ (3.29)	3.53 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
43.1%

Draw
31.1%

Os Marialvas
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

27.5%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

25.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Os Marialvas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SB Castelo Branco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Os Marialvas than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

SB Castelo Branco - Os Marialvas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. SB Castelo Branco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+7', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90+8', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 10 in the zone Relegation).

SB Castelo Branco is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Marialvas's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, SB Castelo Branco is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, SB Castelo Branco won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, SB Castelo Branco won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Os Marialvas	4	3	0	1	8:2	6	9
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.01.26	Naval - SB Castelo Branco	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	SB Castelo Branco - Mortágua	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Fatima	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Samora Correia - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWWW
- CF Os Marialvas
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.01.26	Os Marialvas - Eléctrico	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Vitória de Sernache - Os Marialvas	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Os Marialvas - Lajense	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Naval - Os Marialvas	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
24.08.25	Os Marialvas - SB Castelo Branco	2:1
23.02.25	Os Marialvas - SB Castelo Branco	1:0
27.10.24	SB Castelo Branco - Os Marialvas	1:2

SB Castelo Branco - Os Marialvas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide