Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 7

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Paulo II (Angra do Heroísmo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	SC Lusitânia		Caldas

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	1.93
	3.65	3.3	1.91
	3.77	3.41	1.98	Watch
	3.65	3.32	1.91	Watch
	3.65	3.3	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.28)	3.31 ↑ (3.1)	1.93 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SC Lusitânia
25.2%

Draw
27.6%

Caldas
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

29.4%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.6%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SC Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

SC Lusitânia - Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
72. Sa D. (G) 70. Mosquera D. 2. Derick 24. Edu 15. Breno T. 6. Serginho 42. Biai B. 41. Dario Miranda 11. Joca 32. Gunjo J. 77. Sidney C.	1. Soares W. (G) 56. Nhayson 6. Militao T. 16. Lopez K. 77. Lopes D. 2. Yordy Marcelo 49. Castro T. 20. Rafa Pinto 5. Pepo 99. Balelo 11. Velosa M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Yordy Marcelo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', 🟨,
57', Serginho ↓, Kipanda D. ↑,
62', Mosquera D. 🟨,
63', Militao T. 🟨,
68', Velosa M. ↓, Januario ↑,
75', Dario Miranda 🟨,
77', Jefinho ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
77', Joca ↓, Isma ↑,
78', Lopez K. 🟨,
80', Castro T. ↓, Santos D. ↑,
80', Balelo ↓, Barreiras G. ↑,
83', Edu 🟨,
85', Dario Miranda ↓, Kaylan ↑,
85', Biai B. ↓, Djebate I. ↑,
90', Nhayson 🟥,
90+5', Rafa Pinto ↓, Dias R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches SC Lusitânia won 2.

SC Lusitânia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Caldas is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caldas will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches SC Lusitânia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.8:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams SC Lusitânia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Lusitânia
Portuguese Liga 3
30.03.25	Académica Coimbra - SC Lusitânia	4:2 ✺
22.03.25	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWLL
- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
30.03.25	Caldas - Oliveira Hospital	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	3:0 ✺
02.03.25	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Académica Coimbra - Caldas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.25	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	2:1
10.11.24	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	1:4
11.08.24	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
25.02.18	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	2:0
27.11.16	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	1:0
05.10.16	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	3:0

SC Lusitânia - Caldas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide