Match Info

3. Liga - Round 11

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Ludwigspark Stadion (Saarbrücken)

Referee: Kernchen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 7
Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Saarbrücken		Verl

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.9	2.88	Watch
	2.1	3.8	2.92
	2.17	3.89	3.03
	2.03	3.7	3.15	Watch
	1.73	3.9	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.72)	3.84 ↓ (3.95)	3.18 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saarbrücken
46.2%

Draw
24.4%

Verl
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

23.4%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

23.2%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saarbrücken has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Saarbrücken's form might have worsened.

Verl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Verl's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saarbrücken than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Saarbrücken, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Verl than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Verl, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Saarbrücken - Verl Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Saarbrücken will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Verl will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saarbrücken: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Saarbrücken (votes: 1 - 25%). Verl (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Menzel P. (G) 18. Wilhelm L. 4. Sonnenberg S. (C) 27. Bichsel J. 7. Rizzuto C. 15. Kamara A. 10. Rabihic K. 33. Schumacher T. 20. Pick F. 23. Civeja T. 9. Brunker K.	1. Schulze P. (G) 20. Mhamdi O. 5. Ens M. 34. Otto F. 19. Kijewski N. (C) 28. Otto Y. 8. Waidner D. 6. Eze J. 30. Gayret T. 10. Taz B. 9. Arweiler J.
Substitutes
30. Baumann D. 32. Bormuth R. 22. Caliskaner K. 38. Cymer R. (G) 17. Elongo-Yombo R. 2. Fahrner P. 11. Multhaup M. 31. Neudecker R. 24. Wollschlager L.	23. Besio A. 21. Knost T. 14. Lehmann P. 27. Onuoha C. 7. Stark J. 11. Steczyk D. 24. Stocker M. 18. Wessig F. 40. Zacharias M. (G)
Coaches
Schwartz A.	Strobl T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Arweiler J. ⚽, Taz B. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Rabihic K. ⚽, Pick F. (A),
21', 1 - 2, Arweiler J. ⚽, Taz B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Otto Y. ↓, Stark J. ↑,
46', Civeja T. ↓, Elongo-Yombo R. ↑,
46', Schumacher T. ↓, Caliskaner K. ↑,
54', 1 - 3, Taz B. ⚽, Gayret T. (A),
58', 2 - 3, Caliskaner K. ⚽,
64', Arweiler J. ↓, Besio A. ↑,
78', 2 - 4, Gayret T. ⚽, Taz B. (A),
80', Rabihic K. ↓, Neudecker R. ↑,
80', Eze J. ↓, Wessig F. ↑,
80', Pick F. ↓, Baumann D. ↑,
80', Taz B. ↓, Onuoha C. ↑,
83', Wilhelm L. 🟨,
88', Mhamdi O. ↓, Knost T. ↑,
90', Brunker K. ↓, Wollschlager L. ↑,
90+2', Baumann D. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Saarbrücken could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Saarbrücken won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 2.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Saarbrücken
German 3 Bundesliga
04.10.25	Jahn Regensburg - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Saarbrücken - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Saarbrücken - Schweinfurt	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Saarbrücken - Ulm 1846	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTWW
- SC Verl
German 3 Bundesliga
04.10.25	Schweinfurt - Verl	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Verl - Ingolstadt	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Jahn Regensburg - Verl	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Verl - Energie Cottbus	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Verl - Alemannia Aachen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
03.05.25	Saarbrücken - Verl	4:3
06.12.24	Verl - Saarbrücken	1:1
23.01.24	Verl - Saarbrücken	0:0
23.08.23	Saarbrücken - Verl	4:3
28.01.23	Verl - Saarbrücken	2:0
23.07.22	Saarbrücken - Verl	1:0
23.04.22	Saarbrücken - Verl	1:2

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