Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Final

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta (Sabadell)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	3Cat, Esport3, Footballclub


	Sabadell		UCAM Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.8	3.1
	2.16	2.8	3.55
	2.34	2.76	4.16
	2.21	2.7	3.77	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.2
	2.25	2.93	3.55
	2.16	2.8	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.27)	2.81 ↓ (2.88)	3.55 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabadell
41.5%

Draw
32.7%

UCAM Murcia
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

30.9%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

32.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabadell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

UCAM Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

The ML Model estimate for Sabadell aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Sabadell - UCAM Murcia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabadell (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Martinez R. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Ramirez Carrasco M. A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 2 - 1, del Campo R. ⚽,
64', Ruiz J. 🟥,
90+5', Martorell M. U. 🟥,

Preview

1st leg.

Sabadell is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

UCAM Murcia is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

UCAM Murcia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sabadell will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sabadell won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sabadell won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

UCAM Murcia - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 29.8%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabadell FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
18.05.25	Eibar B - Sabadell	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Sabadell - Eibar B	1:1 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
04.05.25	Valencia B - Sabadell	0:3 ✺
27.04.25	Sabadell - Badalona Futur	5:0 ✺
20.04.25	Terrassa - Sabadell	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTWWL
- UCAM Murcia CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.05.25	UCAM Murcia - Deportivo A Coruña B	3:1 ✺
11.05.25	Deportivo A Coruña B - UCAM Murcia	0:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.05.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez Deportivo	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Don Benito - UCAM Murcia	2:4 ✺
20.04.25	UCAM Murcia - Minera	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.02.22	UCAM Murcia - Sabadell	1:1
31.10.21	Sabadell - UCAM Murcia	1:1

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