Match Info

J3 League - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sagamihara Gion Stadium (Sagamihara) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	17:00	DAZN Japan


	Sagamihara		Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.20	2.45
	2.48	3.20	2.50	Watch
	2.67	3.50	2.59
	2.53	3.31	2.68	Watch
	2.60	3.25	2.45
	2.54	3.53	2.54	Watch
	2.55	3.20	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.2)	3.31 ↑ (3.1)	2.53 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagamihara
36%

Draw
27.7%

Osaka
36.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.7%

28.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagamihara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Sagamihara - Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Sagamihara will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kim Min-ho (G) 19. Okita S. 3. Pytlik K. 13. Tokida M. 2. Watahiki K. 4. Shimakawa T. 8. Kambe K. 15. Maeda T. 10. Nakayama R. 24. Sugimoto R. 9. Sasaki K.	1. Sugawara H. (G) 2. Sakamoto K. 5. Minakuchi Y. 25. Kuwako R. 6. Tachino S. 10. Kubo R. 11. Yoshida G. 14. Sumida S. 17. Morimura S. 95. Isa K. 29. Sugawara R.
Substitutes
34. Handai M. 16. Kato S. 20. Kawabata Y. 1. Miura M. (G) 11. Muto Y. 93. Phochai T. 26. Sato S. 6. Tokunaga Y. 5. Yamauchi R.	21. Kimura H. 7. Kitsui T. 52. Kojima M. 78. Nagano S. 38. Ogawa S. 9. Shimada T. 28. Toya T. 88. Umeda R. (G) 99. Vinicius Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Kambe K. 🟨,
40', Pytlik K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Isa K. ↓, Vinicius Souza ↑,
61', Sugawara R. ↓, Shimada T. ↑,
61', Kubo R. ↓, Toya T. ↑,
64', Kambe K. ↓, Tokunaga Y. ↑,
72', Yoshida G. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
82', Morimura S. ↓, Nagano S. ↑,
86', Maeda T. ↓, Handai M. ↑,
86', Pytlik K. ↓, Yamauchi R. ↑,
90', Sasaki K. ↓, Muto Y. ↑,
90+1', Nakayama R. ↓, Phochai T. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Sugawara H. (Own goal),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 9th and 3rd in the Promotion - J3 League Promotion - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sagamihara won 2.

Sagamihara has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Osaka is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sagamihara could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sagamihara has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:4 (averaging 1.3:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sagamihara against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 6:2 goals (averaging 2:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	23:13	10	23
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	21:14	7	22

Last Results with these Odds

Sagamihara - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.73%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Osaka - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.37%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Sagamihara
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagamihara	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Sagamihara - Júbilo Iwata	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLWTL
- FC Osaka
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Kochi United - Osaka	0:4 ✺
18.09.26	Osaka - Fukushima United	4:1 ✺
14.09.26	Osaka - Ehime	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Osaka - Sagamihara	0:2
18.05.25	Sagamihara - Osaka	1:2
15.11.24	Osaka - Sagamihara	1:0
03.05.24	Sagamihara - Osaka	0:0
12.11.23	Sagamihara - Osaka	5:0
09.07.23	Osaka - Sagamihara	1:0

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