Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Giravanz Kitakyushu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.15
	1.78	3.7	4.43
	1.77	3.71	4.28	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4
	1.77	3.64	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.57)	3.59 ↓ (4.15)	4.25 ↓ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
52.6%

Draw
25.7%

Giravanz Kitakyushu
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

17%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sagan Tosu's form might have worsened.

Giravanz Kitakyushu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sagan Tosu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giravanz Kitakyushu than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Sagan Tosu - Giravanz Kitakyushu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tosu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 3. Kamiyama K. 33. Ogawa S. 22. Yuba K. 20. Toyoda A. 2. Matsumoto N. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 88. Shiohama R.	41. Sugimoto M. (G) 40. Kanzawa R. 22. Ikoma J. 4. Hasegawa K. 28. Konomi K. 14. Izawa H. 7. Hirahara R. 66. Takahashi D. 17. Okano R. 25. Tsubogo R. 10. Nagai R.
Substitutes
26. Ando T. 76. Isotani S. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 41. Matsuoka H. 15. Sakai N. 14. Sakaiya K. 77. Slivka V. 19. Suzuki D. 29. Tanaka Y.	30. Fukumori K. 9. Kawabe S. 13. Kumasawa K. 2. Narasaka T. 31. Otani K. (G) 18. Watanabe S. 37. Yoshida K. 19. Yoshihara F. 8. Yoshinaga M.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Masumoto K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Nishizawa K. ⚽, Yuba K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Kamiyama K. 🟨,
72', Nagai R. ↓, Watanabe S. ↑,
72', Tsubogo R. ↓, Kawabe S. ↑,
74', Hirahara R. ↓, Kumasawa K. ↑,
74', Hyon R. ↓, Tanaka Y. ↑,
81', Okano R. ↓, Yoshinaga M. ↑,
81', Takahashi D. ↓, Yoshihara F. ↑,
83', Yuba K. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
83', Shiohama R. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
83', Kamiyama K. ↓, Isotani S. ↑,
86', Izawa H. 🟨,
87', Nishizawa K. ↓, Sakai N. ↑,
90+7', Sakai N. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Recent form of Tosu has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Giravanz has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Tosu is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 J3 League
07.03.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Kagoshima United	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Sagan Tosu	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Ryūkyū - Sagan Tosu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWT
- Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J2 J3 League
07.03.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Reilac Shiga	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Giravanz Kitakyushu	4:1 ✺
15.02.26	Oita Trinita - Giravanz Kitakyushu	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Gainare Tottori	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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