Match Info

J2 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.35	3.35	2.72	Watch
	2.42	3.69	2.74
	2.55	3.48	2.55	Watch
	2.31	3.3	2.67	Watch
	2.33	3.6	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.59)	3.45 ↑ (3.35)	2.67 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
38.7%

Draw
26.7%

Júbilo Iwata
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

27.7%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.3%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Iwata will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 4. Imazu Y. 32. Ogawa S. 5. Nagasawa S. 2. Matsumoto N. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 16. Nishizawa K. 77. Slivka V. 34. Yamada H.	1. Kawashima E. (G) 5. Ezaki T. 36. Ricardo Graca 52. Van den Bergh J. 25. Nakamura S. 71. Masui K. 7. Uehara R. 6. Kaneko D. 4. Matsubara K. 39. Sumi K. 9. Watanabe R.
Substitutes
18. Hino S. 9. Jo 30. Kimoto Y. 23. Kitajima F. 33. Nishiya K. 47. Shinkawa S. 35. Uchiyama K. (G) 91. Uehara M.	79. Browne N. 18. Inoue S. 33. Kawai T. 2. Kawasaki I. 11. Matheus Peixoto 21. Miura R. (G) 3. Morioka R. 20. Sato R. 8. Tameda H.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Amma T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Imazu Y. 🟨,
43', Kaneko D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Uehara R. ↓, Inoue S. ↑,
46', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
63', Sumi K. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
63', Nakamura S. ↓, Kawai T. ↑,
65', Nishizawa K. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Matsubara K. ⚽, Watanabe R. (A),
74', Sakurai T. ↓, Nishiya K. ↑,
74', Nagasawa S. ↓, Uehara M. ↑,
78', Matsumoto N. ↓, Jo ↑,
87', Slivka V. 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Suzuki D. ⚽, Slivka V. (A),
90', Matsubara K. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Ricardo Graca ⚽, Matheus Peixoto (A),
90+1', Ricardo Graca 🟨,
90+6', Van den Bergh J. ↓, Morioka R. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 3.

Tosu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Iwata is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tosu won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Júbilo Iwata - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.56%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Fujieda MYFC - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Kataller Toyama - Sagan Tosu	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vegalta Sendai - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Sagan Tosu - Blaublitz Akita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTLW
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Júbilo Iwata - Montedio Yamagata	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Júbilo Iwata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Ehime - Júbilo Iwata	1:3 ✺
18.10.25	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.02.25	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	1:0
Japan J1 League
08.12.24	Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata	3:0
11.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	0:3
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata	0:2
05.04.23	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	1:2
Japan J1 League
07.08.22	Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata	2:0
18.06.22	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	3:1

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