Match Info

J2 League - Round 35

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Tokushima Vortis

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.85	2.65	Watch
	2.68	2.92	2.68	Watch
	2.74	2.88	2.69	Watch
	2.65	2.89	2.58	Watch
	2.74	2.92	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.74)	2.89 ↑ (2.88)	2.65 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
33.8%

Draw
31.7%

Tokushima Vortis
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

32%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

33.6%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Tokushima Vortis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 37. Morishita R. 32. Ogawa S. 5. Nagasawa S. 33. Nishiya K. 2. Matsumoto N. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 16. Nishizawa K. 34. Yamada H.	1. Tanaka H. (G) 22. Yanagisawa K. 3. Yamada N. 5. Aoki H. 18. Elsinho 28. Kanuma N. 42. Takagi Y. 7. Kodama S. 55. Shigehiro T. 99. Lucas Barcelos 9. Thonny Anderson
Substitutes
10. Honda F. 4. Imazu Y. 23. Kitajima F. 27. Sakurai T. 47. Shinkawa S. 77. Slivka V. 19. Suzuki D. 35. Uchiyama K. (G) 91. Uehara M.	14. Hyon R. 4. Kaique 29. Mitsui D. (G) 19. Miyazaki J. 97. Moyo M. 10. Sugimoto T. 24. Takada S. 30. Tsuboi K. 16. Watari D.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Masuda K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Lucas Barcelos 🟨,
33', Thonny Anderson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Kanuma N. 🟨,
61', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
64', Thonny Anderson ↓, Tsuboi K. ↑,
64', Elsinho ↓, Moyo M. ↑,
68', Nagasawa S. 🟨,
75', Shigehiro T. ↓, Hyon R. ↑,
77', Nishikawa J. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
77', Matsumoto N. ↓, Sakurai T. ↑,
77', Nishizawa K. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
80', Takagi Y. ↓, Takada S. ↑,
80', Lucas Barcelos ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
85', Nagasawa S. ↓, Uehara M. ↑,
89', Sakurai T. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 7 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 4.

Tosu is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Tokushima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tosu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:1. (average 3.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
26.10.25	Vegalta Sendai - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Sagan Tosu - Blaublitz Akita	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagan Tosu	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Imabari - Sagan Tosu	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Sagan Tosu - Roasso Kumamoto	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWTW
- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
26.10.25	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	0:4 ✺
05.10.25	Tokushima Vortis - Imabari	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Kataller Toyama - Tokushima Vortis	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Tokushima Vortis - Consadole Sapporo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	0:1
Japan J1 League
03.10.21	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	3:0
01.05.21	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	2:0
Japan Emperors Cup
11.07.18	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	3:1
Japan J1 League
22.11.14	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	0:1
01.03.14	Sagan Tosu - Tokushima Vortis	5:0

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