Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 9

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.36	3.3	2.95
	2.36	3.28	2.94	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.4
	1.95	3.22	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.07)	3.25 ↓ (3.49)	3.3 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
43.8%

Draw
28.3%

Oita Trinita
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

26.6%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

26.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Oita Trinita will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matsubara S. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 76. Isotani S. 33. Ogawa S. 22. Yuba K. 20. Toyoda A. 2. Matsumoto N. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 19. Suzuki D.	22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 2. Okamoto T. 31. Matheus Pereira 6. Misao Y. 7. Yoshida M. 72. Yamaguchi T. 8. Sakakibara K. 14. Utsumoto S. 20. Kimoto T. 37. Kimoto M. 17. Kim Hyun-woo
Substitutes
26. Ando T. 4. Imazu Y. 13. Jojo K. 3. Kamiyama K. 15. Sakai N. 6. Sakurai T. 29. Tanaka Y. 35. Uchiyama K. (G) 43. Yoshino K.	13. Isa K. 19. Kozakai A. 33. Miyakawa A. 5. Nakagawa H. 18. Nodake J. 16. Shige T. 1. Tanaka Y. (G) 30. Tone I. 21. Udo S.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Yomoda S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Kim Hyun-woo ⚽, Kimoto T. (A),
43', Suzuki D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hyon R. ↓, Jojo K. ↑,
59', Sakamoto K. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
65', Kim Hyun-woo ↓, Isa K. ↑,
68', Isotani S. ↓, Kamiyama K. ↑,
68', Suzuki D. ↓, Sakai N. ↑,
75', Yamaguchi T. ↓, Nodake J. ↑,
75', Kimoto M. ↓, Udo S. ↑,
79', Toyoda A. ↓, Tanaka Y. ↑,
83', Kimoto T. ↓, Kozakai A. ↑,
85', Kamiyama K. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 1.

Tosu has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oita Trinita has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Oita Trinita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tosu is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tosu won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Sagan Tosu - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.84%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Gainare Tottori - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Sagan Tosu - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Kagoshima United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLL
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Oita Trinita - Ryūkyū	2:3 ✺
14.03.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Oita Trinita - Kagoshima United	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	2:1
29.04.25	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	1:0
Japan J1 League
18.09.21	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	0:0
15.05.21	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	1:1
19.12.20	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	2:2
04.07.20	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	2:0
04.08.19	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	2:2

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