Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 6

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Referee: Nishimura Y. (Jpn)


	Sagan Tosu		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.55	Watch
	6	3.9	1.53
	5.91	3.95	1.52	Watch
	6.3	4.25	1.55
	6.3	4.25	1.56
	5.5	3.9	1.5
	6.14	4.23	1.54	Watch
	5.8	4	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.06 ↑ (4.47)	4.06 ↑ (3.77)	1.54 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
15.5%

Draw
23.2%

Vissel Kobe
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

25.1%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

24.8%

54.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sagan Tosu's form might have worsened.

Vissel Kobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vissel Kobe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sagan Tosu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vissel Kobe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	0%	91.3%

Sagan Tosu - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: Vissel Kobe will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 28. Maruhashi Y. 6. Fukuta A. 5. Kawahara S. 88. Naganuma Y. 21. Horigome Y. 23. Kikuchi T. 22. Togashi C.	1. Maekawa D. (G) 24. Sakai G. 4. Yamakawa T. 3. Thuler 19. Hatsuse R. 6. Ogihara T. 96. Yamaguchi H. 9. Miyashiro T. 11. Muto Y. 10. Osako Y. 23. Hirose R.
Substitutes
11. Araujo V. 3. Kimura S. 12. Koh Bong-jo (G) 99. Marcelo Ryan 8. Nakahara H. 32. Sakaiya K. 13. Yokoyama A.	21. Arai S. (G) 15. Honda Y. 2. Iino N. 81. Kikuchi R. 25. Kuwasaki Y. 22. Sasaki D. 30. Yamauchi K.
Coaches
Kawai K.	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Hirose R. ↓, Iino N. ↑,
22', Togashi C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Iino N. ↓, Sasaki D. ↑,
64', Horigome Y. ↓, Marcelo Ryan ↑,
75', Kikuchi T. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
85', Miyashiro T. ↓, Kikuchi R. ↑,
90', Togashi C. ↓, Kimura S. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 0.

Tosu is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vissel Kobe is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Vissel Kobe is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 16-32.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 6-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Machida Zelvia - Sagan Tosu	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	Sagan Tosu - Cerezo Osaka	0:2 ✺
09.03.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Sagan Tosu	4:0 ✺
02.03.24	Sagan Tosu - Consadole Sapporo	4:0 ✺
24.02.24	Sagan Tosu - Albirex Niigata	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLLWL
- Vissel Kobe
Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Vissel Kobe - Consadole Sapporo	6:1 ✺
16.03.24	Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Tokyo - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
01.03.24	Vissel Kobe - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
23.02.24	Júbilo Iwata - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
16.07.23	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	2:1
18.03.23	Sagan Tosu - Vissel Kobe	0:1
02.07.22	Sagan Tosu - Vissel Kobe	0:2
14.05.22	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	4:0
04.12.21	Sagan Tosu - Vissel Kobe	0:2
30.05.21	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	1:1
23.09.20	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	4:3

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