Match Info

Date: 26 September 2020, Saturday


	Saint Louis		Louisville City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.25	2.35
	2.6	3.25	2.4
	2.65	3.15	2.41
	2.82	3.43	2.36
	2.73	3.44	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.99)	3.3 (3.3)	2.37 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint Louis
33.9%

Draw
27.6%

Louisville City
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

27.3%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

20.8%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint Louis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint Louis than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint Louis that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+17.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Louisville City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Saint Louis - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Saint Louis has a chance of playoffs (22%), has a small chance of qtrs (6%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Louisville City was already of playoffs, has a good chance of qtrs (83%), has a chance of semis (38%), has a chance of final (22%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Recent matches Saint Louis is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Louisville City is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Louisville City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Saint Louis won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Saint Louis won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Saint Louis FC
USL Championship
23.09.20	Indy Eleven - Saint Louis	1:1 ✺
19.09.20	Saint Louis - Sporting Kansas City II	3:2 ✺
12.09.20	Louisville City - Saint Louis	3:0 ✺
04.09.20	Saint Louis - Sporting Kansas City II	3:2 ✺
29.08.20	Saint Louis - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWLWT
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
19.09.20	Louisville City - Memphis 901	4:1 ✺
16.09.20	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
12.09.20	Louisville City - Saint Louis	3:0 ✺
05.09.20	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	1:3 ✺
29.08.20	Saint Louis - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
12.09.20	Louisville City - Saint Louis	3:0
29.08.20	Saint Louis - Louisville City	1:1
18.07.20	Louisville City - Saint Louis	0:1
05.10.19	Saint Louis - Louisville City	0:1
18.05.19	Louisville City - Saint Louis	0:0
US Open Cup
23.05.18	Louisville City - Saint Louis	1:0
USL Championship
22.07.17	Saint Louis - Louisville City	1:4

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