Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 11

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Rosier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free


	Bastia		Laval

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.88	3.1	Watch
	2.25	2.98	3.35
	2.42	3	3.48
	2.06	3.05	3.68	Watch
	2.34	3	3.23	Watch
	2.36	2.9	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.97)	2.97 ↓ (3.5)	3.36 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
40.9%

Draw
31.4%

Laval
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27.1%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

27.4%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia's form might have worsened.

Laval has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Laval than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	50%	15%

Bastia - Laval Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Laval will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Laval (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 6. Guidi D. (C) 12. Zilliox N. 33. Petrignani M. 66. Janneh J. 24. Meynadier T. 5. Ariss Z. 29. Etoga L. 9. Tomi F. 14. Sebas J. 8. Karamoko I.	30. Samassa M. (G) 6. Sanna S. (C) 4. Ouaneh P. 3. Bianda W. 2. Pellenard T. 35. Samb L. 18. Tchokounte M. 14. Mandouki C. 26. Benard W. 28. Maggiotti J. 9. Camara M.
Substitutes
25. Aiki A. 2. Basset D. 11. Ble M. 10. Boutrah A. 1. Olmeta L. (G) 7. Vincent C. 18. Zaouai A.	21. Aradj Y. 20. Clavreul E. 1. Hautbois M. (G) 34. Maddy E. 25. Montet E. 10. Sellouki M. 7. Vargas T.
Coaches
Ray R.	Frapolli O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Maggiotti J. 🟨,
20', Bianda W. 🟨,
27', Zilliox N. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Samb L. ⚽,
42', Benard W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 2, Tchokounte M. (Pen),
62', Etoga L. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
63', Meynadier T. 🟨,
70', Maggiotti J. ↓, Vargas T. ↑,
74', Tomi F. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
74', Sebas J. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
74', Janneh J. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
78', Benard W. ↓, Montet E. ↑,
78', Tchokounte M. ↓, Clavreul E. ↑,
82', Petrignani M. 🟨,
83', Karamoko I. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 2.

Recent form of Bastia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Laval has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bastia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Etoga L. (Knock) Karamoko I. (Injury)

There will not play in Laval: Adilehou M. (Inactive) Commaret M. (Injury) Montet E. (Inactive) Mupemba N. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 2:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
21.11.25	Annecy - Bastia	1:0 ✺
07.11.25	Bastia - Reims	1:3 ✺
31.10.25	Bastia - Clermont	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Nancy - Bastia	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Troyes - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL
- Stade Laval
French Ligue 2
21.11.25	Laval - Troyes	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
15.11.25	Le Cellier Mauves - Laval	0:6 ✺
French Ligue 2
07.11.25	Nancy - Laval	0:2 ✺
31.10.25	Guingamp - Laval	2:0 ✺
28.10.25	Laval - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
14.04.25	Bastia - Laval	5:2
08.11.24	Laval - Bastia	2:2
30.03.24	Laval - Bastia	1:2
16.09.23	Bastia - Laval	0:3
06.05.23	Laval - Bastia	2:1
30.07.22	Bastia - Laval	0:2
French Ligue 3
06.04.21	Laval - Bastia	0:1

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