Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Lesage M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Saint-Étienne		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.75	5	Watch
	1.5	4.45	5.3
	1.52	4.63	5.75
	1.44	4.80	6.02	Watch
	1.53	4.55	5.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.57)	4.64 ↑ (4.37)	5.53 ↑ (5.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
62.8%

Draw
20.2%

Guingamp
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

21.6%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	8.3%	25%

Saint Étienne - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Guingamp will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Saint-Étienne (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 6. Bernauer M. 15. Lamba C. 3. Nade M. 19. Annan E. 5. Jaber M. 20. Boakye A. 29. Moueffek A. 10. Tardieu F. 22. Davitashvili Z. 9. Stassin L.	1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 2. Koffi E. 22. Sissoko A. 7. Gomis D. 29. Abdallah A. 20. Hatchi J. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 8. Sidibe K. 21. Mbemba F. 10. Hemia A. 9. Mafouta L.
Substitutes
7. Cardona I. 17. Duffus J. 31. El Jamali N. 13. Ferreira J. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 11. Old B.	39. Ahile T. 36. Demouchy A. 27. Kielt S. 40. Marec N. (G) 6. N'Landu D. 24. Ott G. 23. Ourega D.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Sidibe K. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Hemia A. ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, Louiserre D. (Own goal),
45+2', Bernauer M. 🟨,
45+2', Abdallah A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Cardona I. ↑,
58', Moueffek A. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
60', Jaber M. 🟨,
62', Mbemba F. ↓, Ourega D. ↑,
62', Sidibe K. ↓, N'Landu D. ↑,
62', Hatchi J. ↓, Ott G. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, N'Landu D. ⚽,
76', Jaber M. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,
76', Annan E. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
78', Mafouta L. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
78', Hemia A. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Ahile T. ⚽,
81', Bernauer M. 🟨,
84', Stassin L. ↓, Old B. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 3, Nade M. ⚽, Tardieu F. (A),
90+3', Lamba C. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 2.

Saint-Étienne is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Guingamp has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Saint-Étienne is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Ekwah P. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Inactive) Gadegbeku L. (Inactive) N'Guessan D. (International duty)

There will not play in Guingamp: Nair S. (Ankle Injury) Ortola A. (Injury) Planeix I. (Inactive) Sagna A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Guingamp: Ourega D. (Injury)

We predict that Saint-Étienne will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:15. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Amiens - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Clermont - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Saint-Étienne - Grenoble	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Boulogne - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWTW
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Guingamp - Dunkerque	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Troyes - Guingamp	5:2 ✺
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Guingamp - Red Star	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
04.05.24	Guingamp - Saint-Étienne	2:2
05.12.23	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	1:3
06.05.23	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	3:2
17.09.22	Guingamp - Saint-Étienne	2:1
French Ligue 1
12.01.19	Guingamp - Saint-Étienne	0:1
11.08.18	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:1
18.03.18	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:0

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