Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 5

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Guingamp		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.8
	2.68	3.3	2.48
	2.44	3.34	2.9
	2.70	3.33	2.51	Watch
	2.69	3.4	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.37)	3.33 ↑ (3.28)	2.63 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guingamp
36%

Draw
28.2%

Montpellier
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

27.6%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	69.2%	0%

Guingamp - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Guingamp will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Guingamp (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 8 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 2. Koffi E. 7. Gomis D. 36. Demouchy A. 29. Abdallah A. 20. Hatchi J. 6. N'Landu D. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 24. Ott G. 10. Hemia A. 9. Mafouta L.	31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 6. Jullien C. 15. Laporte J. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 23. Mouanga Y. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 3. El Hannach N. 7. Mbuku N. 19. Mendy A. 14. Orakpo V.
Substitutes
39. Ahile T. 27. Kielt S. 40. Marec N. (G) 21. Mbemba F. 23. Ourega D. 8. Sidibe K. 22. Sissoko A.	44. Chennahi T. 50. Dzodic V. (G) 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 33. Mohamed I. 24. Ndiaye J. 18. Pays N. 11. Savanier T.
Coaches
Ripoll S.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Mincarelli L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Gomis D. ⚽, Koffi E. (A),
35', N'Landu D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', N'Landu D. ↓, Sidibe K. ↑,
64', Abdallah A. ↓, Ourega D. ↑,
64', Ott G. ↓, Mbemba F. ↑,
67', Mouanga Y. ↓, Chennahi T. ↑,
67', Mincarelli L. ↓, Savanier T. ↑,
74', Hatchi J. ↓, Sissoko A. ↑,
80', El Hannach N. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
81', Mbuku N. ↓, Pays N. ↑,
82', Mafouta L. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
84', Pays N. 🟨,
90+4', Orakpo V. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guingamp won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Guingamp: Nair S. (Ankle Injury) Planeix I. (Inactive) Sagna A. (Injury) Sidibe K. (Muscle Injury) Sissoko A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Fayad K. (Leg Injury) Gueguin A. (Inactive) Junior Pereira da Silva E. (Injury) Michel M. (Broken rib)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Ngosso G. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Guingamp won 0 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Guingamp won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Guingamp - Red Star	0:4 ✺
16.08.25	Reims - Guingamp	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Guingamp - Le Mans	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Guingamp - Stade Briochin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLTW
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
29.08.25	Montpellier - Amiens	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Troyes - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
18.08.25	Le Mans - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Montpellier - Red Star	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.25	Montpellier - Rodez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
03.04.19	Montpellier - Guingamp	2:0
06.10.18	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:1
17.02.18	Montpellier - Guingamp	1:1
29.11.17	Guingamp - Montpellier	0:0
French Coupe de la Ligue
24.10.17	Guingamp - Montpellier	0:2
French Ligue 1
04.03.17	Montpellier - Guingamp	1:1
10.09.16	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:1

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