Match Info

1. Lig - Round 13

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadıum (Adapazari)

Referee: Coskunses R. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Sakaryaspor		Serik Belediyespor

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.75	6.25	Watch
	1.41	4.56	6.18
	1.42	4.85	6.59
	1.83	3.92	3.63	Watch
	1.44	4.72	6.21	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.83)	4.4 ↑ (3.92)	5.34 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sakaryaspor
60.4%

Draw
21.7%

Serik Belediyespor
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

23.7%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

22.5%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sakaryaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sakaryaspor's performance.

Serik Belediyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Serik Belediyespor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sakaryaspor than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sakaryaspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serik Belediyespor than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Serik Belediyespor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Sakaryaspor - Serik Belediyespor Predictions

Users Predictions: Sakaryaspor will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sakaryaspor will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Szumski J. (G) 21. Yavuz S. 24. Dursun S. 5. Ciftpinar S. 88. Erkin C. (C) 44. Vukovic J. 77. Erdogan E. 7. Demir M. 10. Kakuta G. 54. Coban B. 12. Ben Yedder W.	34. Ersu E. (G) 4. Martynov A. 24. Gotsuk K. 35. Isciler B. 22. Ceylan B. 8. Silva M. 20. Dilli S. 3. Terzi E. 9. Sadygov I. 10. Amaral J. 89. Celenk E. (C)
Substitutes
3. Acil O. 36. Altiparmak B. 61. Bayram A. 34. Baytekin G. (G) 4. Cakir B. 8. Cihan M. 25. Demir A. 14. Demir E. 96. Kobiljar R. 22. Okumus A.	33. Akkan G. 79. Altiparmak G. 7. Berkovsky I. 19. Cetin S. 11. Karadeniz G. 27. Karakaya B. (G) 70. Ozcan S. 16. Sen K. 2. Tashkyn S. 17. Yukseloglu H.
Coaches
Sutlu S.	Sinan P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Silva M. ⚽, Amaral J. (A),
37', Demir M. 🟨,
41', Terzi E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Erdogan E. ⚽, Ben Yedder W. (A),
57', Silva M. 🟨,
59', Sadygov I. ↓, Berkovsky I. ↑,
59', Terzi E. ↓, Tashkyn S. ↑,
65', Erkin C. 🟨,
68', Celenk E. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Amaral J. ⚽,
76', 1 - 3, Celenk E. ⚽, Berkovsky I. (A),
79', Yavuz S. ↓, Cihan M. ↑,
79', Demir M. ↓, Demir E. ↑,
79', Amaral J. ↓, Karadeniz G. ↑,
80', Erkin C. ↓, Okumus A. ↑,
81', Ciftpinar S. ↓, Cakir B. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Demir E. ⚽, Ben Yedder W. (A),
83', Martynov A. 🟨,
83', Kakuta G. 🟨,
89', Ceylan B. 🟨,
90', Ersu E. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).

Sakaryaspor is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Serik Belediyespor is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sakaryaspor is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sakaryaspor: Erkin C. (Red Card) Sanli B. (Inactive) Turken A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Serik Belediyespor: Karakaya B. (Inactive) Kok D. (Inactive) Yucedag E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sakaryaspor: Zwolinski L. (Injury)

We predict that Sakaryaspor will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sakaryaspor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sakaryaspor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sakaryaspor
Turkish First League
02.11.25	Vanspor - Sakaryaspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
28.10.25	Sakaryaspor - İnegölspor	4:0 ✺
Turkish First League
25.10.25	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Adana Demirspor - Sakaryaspor	0:6 ✺
05.10.25	Sarıyer - Sakaryaspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWWWW
- Serik Belediyespor
Turkish First League
01.11.25	Serik Belediyespor - Adana Demirspor	4:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
28.10.25	Aliaga - Serik Belediyespor	4:3 ✺
Turkish First League
25.10.25	Pendikspor - Serik Belediyespor	4:0 ✺
20.10.25	Serik Belediyespor - Amed SK	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Sivasspor - Serik Belediyespor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Second League Red Group
24.04.22	Serik Belediyespor - Sakaryaspor	1:2
12.12.21	Sakaryaspor - Serik Belediyespor	2:1
15.04.21	Serik Belediyespor - Sakaryaspor	0:3
18.01.21	Sakaryaspor - Serik Belediyespor	1:1

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