Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 21

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Orsato D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Hungary	Sport 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Salernitana		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.3	3	2.35
	3.25	3.05	2.38	Watch
	3.71	3.24	2.18
	3.43	3.07	2.44
	3.4	3	2.25
	3.41	3.23	2.42	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (3.42)	3.1 ↓ (3.24)	2.34 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
28.1%

Draw
31%

Genoa
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

29.3%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

28.8%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.5%	51.1%	23.4%

Salernitana - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Salernitana will win (votes: 12 - 25.5%). Genoa will win (votes: 11 - 23.4%). It will Tie (votes: 24 - 51.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 36.8% – 65.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ochoa G. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 23. Gyomber N. 66. Lovato M. 3. Bradaric D. 7. Martegani A. 25. Maggiore G. 26. Basic T. 87. Candreva A. (C) 33. Tchaouna L. 9. Simy	1. Martinez J. (G) 14. Vogliacco A. 13. Bani M. 22. Vasquez J. 32. Frendrup M. 17. Malinovsky R. 47. Badelj M. (C) 8. Strootman K. 90. Spence D. 19. Retegui M. 11. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
11. Botheim E. 28. Bronn D. 56. Costil B. (G) 5. Daniliuc F. 1. Fiorillo V. (G) 22. Ikwuemesi C. 20. Kastanos G. 99. Legowski M. 6. Sambia J. 36. Sfait A. 59. Zanoli A.	46. Cisse F. 18. Ekuban C. 40. Fini S. 16. Leali N. (G) 41. Papadopoulos C. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 2. Thorsby M.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Gilardino A.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 12).

Salernitana is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Genoa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Genoa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Genoa will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Salernitana: Coulibaly L. (National selection) Dia B. (Muscle Injury) Jovane (National selection) Pirola L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Salernitana: Kastanos G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Genoa: Bohinen E. (Injury) Ekuban C. (Muscle Injury) Thorsby M. (Illness)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie A
13.01.24	Napoli - Salernitana	2:1 ✺
07.01.24	Salernitana - Juventus	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.01.24	Juventus - Salernitana	6:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.12.23	Verona - Salernitana	0:1 ✺
22.12.23	Salernitana - Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LLLWT
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
13.01.24	Genoa - Torino	0:0 ✺
05.01.24	Bologna - Genoa	1:1 ✺
29.12.23	Genoa - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
22.12.23	Sassuolo - Genoa	1:2 ✺
15.12.23	Genoa - Juventus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.10.23	Genoa - Salernitana	1:0
13.02.22	Genoa - Salernitana	1:1
Coppa Italia
14.12.21	Genoa - Salernitana	1:0
Italian Serie A
02.10.21	Salernitana - Genoa	1:0

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