Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 21

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme (San Benedetto del Tronto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Sambenedettese		Gubbio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.38	2.92	3.05
	2.42	2.81	3.14	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.25
	2.25	3	3.45	Watch
	2.45	2.66	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.37)	2.83 ↓ (2.95)	3.24 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sambenedettese
39.2%

Draw
32.5%

Gubbio
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

31.2%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

30.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sambenedettese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sambenedettese than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Sambenedettese - Gubbio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sambenedettese (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sambenedettese (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sambenedettese (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Orsini T. (G) 17. Pezzola L. 21. Dalmazzi A. 4. Zini A. 8. Bongelli R. 80. Piccoli M. 15. Zoboletti A. 14. Tosi F. 47. Konate A. 9. Eusepi U. (C) 18. Candellori K.	12. Krapikas T. (G) 34. Zallu F. 4. Baroncelli L. 5. Di Bitonto A. 23. Bruscagin M. 8. Rosaia G. (C) 21. Carraro F. 40. Costa G. 27. Podda L. 73. Ghirardello T. 9. Tommasini C.
Substitutes
5. Chelli M. 22. Cultraro G. (G) 77. Iaiunese C. 82. Lonardo E. 6. Lulli L. 30. Napolitano L. 34. Ponzanetti M. (G) 10. Sbaffo A. 37. Toure M. 19. Vesprini R.	1. Bagnolini N. (G) 78. Conti V. 10. Di Massimo A. 82. Djankpata H. 17. Fazzi N. 44. Hraiech S. 19. La Mantia A. 29. Murru N. 80. Niang O. 3. Tentardini A. 56. Tomasella M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Baroncelli L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Konate A. 🟨,
56', Konate A. ↓, Lonardo E. ↑,
61', Bongelli R. 🟨,
62', Baroncelli L. ↓, Fazzi N. ↑,
62', Costa G. ↓, Hraiech S. ↑,
63', Bongelli R. ↓, Toure M. ↑,
74', Candellori K. 🟨,
75', Tommasini C. ↓, La Mantia A. ↑,
75', Zallu F. ↓, Murru N. ↑,
81', Ghirardello T. ↓, Di Massimo A. ↑,
90+3', Eusepi U. ↓, Sbaffo A. ↑,
90+3', Tosi F. ↓, Lulli L. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sambenedettese won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Gubbio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Sambenedettese won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:12. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sambenedettese won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Gubbio	9	2	1	6	10:18	-8	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	1	3	5	12:15	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Sambenedettese - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.79%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sambenedettese Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
04.01.26	Bra - Sambenedettese	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Sambenedettese - Vis Pesaro	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Pontedera - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Arezzo - Sambenedettese	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
26.11.25	Sambenedettese - Brescia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.25	Pineto - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Gubbio - Sassari Torres	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Pianese - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gubbio - Livorno	0:0 ✺
26.11.25	Gubbio - Juventus U23	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
30.08.25	Gubbio - Sambenedettese	1:1
Club Friendly
26.08.23	Gubbio - Sambenedettese	1:1
Italian Serie C Group B
30.01.21	Gubbio - Sambenedettese	1:2
04.10.20	Sambenedettese - Gubbio	2:1
09.12.19	Sambenedettese - Gubbio	2:0
28.04.19	Sambenedettese - Gubbio	3:1
22.12.18	Gubbio - Sambenedettese	0:0

Sambenedettese - Gubbio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide