Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 21

Date: 1 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Referee: Furtado A. S. (Bra)


	Sampaio Corrêa		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.87	4.2
	2.1	2.85	3.85
	2.09	3.06	4.39
	2.1	2.7	3.6
	2.02	2.94	4.5	Watch
	2.05	3.05	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.3)	2.91 ↑ (2.89)	4.06 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
45.2%

Draw
31.9%

Botafogo SP
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

31.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

31.6%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sampaio Corrêa's performance.

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo SP might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sampaio Corrêa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo SP could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	23.5%	35.3%

Sampaio Corrêa - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Botafogo SP will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sampaio Corrêa: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 17. Samuel Santos 14. Gustavo Henrique 4. Fabio Aguiar 16. Para 15. Mikael 8. Ferreira (C) 10. Marcinho 11. Pimentinha 7. Robinho 18. Henrique	1. Matheus Albino (G) 2. Thassio 3. Lucas Dias 4. Marcio Silva 5. Tarik 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Edson Carioca 10. Osman (C) 11. Luiz Henrique 9. Salatiel 6. Patrick Brey
Substitutes
6. Alyson Neves 23. Claudio Cebolinha 5. Eloir 3. Gabriel Furtado 22. Luiz Otavio 2. Mateus Pivo 9. Matheus Martins 20. Mauricio Maranhao 21. Neto Paraiba 13. Rafael Jansen 12. Thiago Braga (G) 19. Vitinho	15. Carlos Manuel 14. Diogo Silva 19. Edson Carius 12. Gasparotto G. (G) 20. Gustavo Xuxa 17. Ivonei 16. Jean 21. Jonas Toro 22. Lucas Cardoso 18. Pedro Rodrigues 13. Vidal
Coaches
Fernandes M.	Marcelo Chamusca

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 15 and 9).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Botafogo SP could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Sampaio Corrêa will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Sampaio Corrêa: Emerson Carioca (Red Card)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Fillipe Soutto (Injury) Joao Veras (Injury) Robinho (Injury) Victor Souza (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Sampaio Corrêa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie B
29.07.23	Atlético Goianiense - Sampaio Corrêa	2:2 ✺
23.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
19.07.23	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
14.07.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Ituano	0:0 ✺
08.07.23	Tombense - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TLLTW
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
29.07.23	Botafogo SP - Juventude	0:2 ✺
24.07.23	Londrina - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
17.07.23	Botafogo SP - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
07.07.23	Ceará - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
03.07.23	Botafogo SP - Guarani	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.04.23	Botafogo SP - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0
12.01.21	Botafogo SP - Sampaio Corrêa	2:1
11.10.20	Sampaio Corrêa - Botafogo SP	2:0

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