Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 3

Date: 12 June 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)


	Sampaio Corrêa		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	2.87	3.2
	2.4	3	2.85
	2.36	2.87	3.25
	2.36	2.78	3.25
	2.15	2.9	3.1
	2.25	2.98	3.16	Watch
	2.24	2.95	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.41)	2.91 ↓ (3.1)	3.14 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
39.9%

Draw
31.2%

Caxias
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.6%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28.3%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

Sampaio Corrêa - Caxias Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe (G) 7. Adauto 21. Breno Almeida 4. Fabio Aguiar 8. Ferreira (C) 10. Gabriel Silva 5. Gazao 2. Mauricio Maranhao 3. Onwudiwe F. 11. Pimentinha 6. Thiago Rosa	1. Ze Carlos (G) 9. Alvaro 11. Augusto Galvan 8. Emerson Martins 5. Geilson 4. Lucas Cunha 3. Lucas Ryan 2. Marcelo 6. Mateus Mendes 7. Pedro Cuiaba 10. Tomas Bastos (C)
Substitutes
13. Betao 9. Bruno Baio 32. Carlos Eduardo (G) 22. Edrean 15. Eloir 17. Escuro 14. Itambe 16. Jhonata Varela 18. Joao Felipe 23. Lucas Lopes 19. Marcelinho 20. Nadson Mesquita	15. Barba 13. Cezar 21. David Lustosa 14. Dirceu 17. Elyeser 18. Emerson Souza 16. Gabriel Silva 12. Thiago Coelho (G) 19. Vinicius 20. Vitor Feijao
Coaches
Ze Augusto	Argel Fuchs

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Alvaro ⚽,
43', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Mauricio Maranhao 🟨,
50', Mateus Mendes ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
51', Fabio Aguiar 🟨,
57', Ferreira ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
57', Adauto ↓, Nadson Mesquita ↑,
63', Emerson Martins ↓, Elyeser ↑,
63', Tomas Bastos ↓, David Lustosa ↑,
70', Breno Almeida ↓, Joao Felipe ↑,
70', Jhonata Varela 🟨,
71', Gazao ↓, Jhonata Varela ↑,
80', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,
80', Alvaro ↓, Emerson Souza ↑,
80', Gabriel Silva ↓, Bruno Baio ↑,
85', Vitor Feijao 🟨,
88', Emerson Souza 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Bruno Baio (Pen),
90+4', 2 - 1, Bruno Baio ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Sampaio Corrêa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Caxias has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Caxias could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie C
08.06.24	Londrina - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
01.06.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Remo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
29.05.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Botafogo PB	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.24	Fluminense - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
09.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:2 ✺
02.06.24	Caxias - Figueirense	2:1 ✺
28.04.24	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:1 ✺
20.04.24	Caxias - Athletic Club	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
26.03.24	Grêmio - Caxias	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWTLL

Sampaio Corrêa - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide