Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday


	Caxias		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.8	3.3	3.8
	1.9	3.4	3.6	Watch
	1.86	3.45	4.33
	1.87	3.35	4.33
	1.8	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.37	4.13	Watch
	1.83	3.45	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.15)	3.37 ↑ (3.2)	3.97 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
49.7%

Draw
27.2%

Athletic Club
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

29.3%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caxias's performance.

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Club might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caxias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+5%)

Caxias - Athletic Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 5. Barba 4. Cezar 6. Dudu Mandai 8. Elyeser 7. Gabriel Silva 3. Jean Pierre 9. Joel Vinicius 2. Marcelo 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 11. Vitor Feijao	1. Glauco (G) 10. David Braga 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 8. Djalma 4. Edson Miranda 9. Jonathas 11. Paul Villero 3. Reginaldo 7. Welinton Torrao 2. Ynaia 6. Yuri
Substitutes
19. Alvaro 21. Augusto Galvan 20. David Lustosa 14. Dirceu 18. Emerson Martins 17. Geilson 13. Lucas Cunha 23. Lucas Ryan 16. Mateus Mendes 22. Matheus Rocha 15. Pedro Cuiaba 12. Ze Carlos (G)	13. Alyson 20. Denilson 14. Douglas Pele 17. Geovane 12. Jefferson Luis (G) 15. Leo Cruz 21. Lucas Mineiro 19. Neto Costa 16. Rafael Conceicao 22. Robinho 18. Romulo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Paul Villero ⚽,
15', 0 - 2, Jonathas ⚽,
31', Diego Fumaca 🟨,
31', Elyeser 🟨,
37', 0 - 3, Jonathas ⚽,
45+2', Joel Vinicius ↓, Augusto Galvan ↑,
45+2', Elyeser ↓, Pedro Cuiaba ↑,
45+2', Jean Pierre ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diego Fumaca ↓, Romulo ↑,
46', Lucas Cunha 🟥,
48', 0 - 4, Jonathas ⚽,
64', Tomas Bastos ↓, Dirceu ↑,
69', Welinton Torrao ↓, Robinho ↑,
69', David Braga ↓, Geovane ↑,
69', Paul Villero ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
74', Djalma ↓, Rafael Conceicao ↑,
75', Barba ↓, Geilson ↑,
82', Geilson 🟨,
89', Rafael Conceicao 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Caxias is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
26.03.24	Grêmio - Caxias	3:2 ✺
16.03.24	Caxias - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.24	Caxias - Bahia	2:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.24	Caxias - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Novo Hamburgo - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLWW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
28.03.24	Athletic Club - Pouso Alegre	3:0 ✺
23.03.24	Pouso Alegre - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
16.03.24	Athletic Club - Uberlândia	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.24	CRB Maceio - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
09.03.24	Uberlândia - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWTLT

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