Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 19

Date: 24 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Referee: Pereira Sampiao S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Sampaio Corrêa		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	3.4	5
	1.6	3.5	5.5
	1.59	3.55	5.8
	1.59	3.51	5.73
	1.57	3.4	5
	1.63	3.4	5.31	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.94)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	5.41 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
56.9%

Draw
26.2%

Confiança
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27.8%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

28.1%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sampaio Corrêa's performance.

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Confiança might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sampaio Corrêa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Confiança could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alan (G) 3. Betao 5. Cavi 8. Ferreira (C) 4. Itambe 18. Joao Felipe 23. Mauricio Maranhao 20. Nadson Mesquita 11. Pimentinha 6. Thiago Rosa 21. Victor Daniel	1. Jeferson Souza (G) 3. Afonso 8. Andre 6. Felippe Borges 10. Italo 7. Julio Rusch 2. Lucas Mendes 5. Luiz Otavio (C) 17. Riquelmo 11. Vico
Substitutes
7. Adauto 9. Bruno Baio 12. Carlos Eduardo (G) 22. Dimas 15. Escuro 14. Fabio Aguiar 2. Fabrizio 10. Gabriel Silva 16. Guilherme 13. Onwudiwe F. 19. Roney	4. Adryan 16. Douglas 13. Eduardo 15. Fabricio 14. Junior 19. Leonardo David 18. Pedro Rodrigues 12. Thiago Braga (G) 9. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Felipe Surian	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Mauricio Maranhao 🟨,
25', Thiago Rosa ↓, Dimas ↑,
36', Riquelmo ↓, Douglas ↑,
39', Andre 🟨,
42', Itambe 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mauricio Maranhao ↓, Bruno Baio ↑,
50', Jeferson Souza ↓, Thiago Braga ↑,
68', Nadson Mesquita ↓, Roney ↑,
69', Italo ↓, Eduardo ↑,
69', Julio Rusch ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
69', Vico ↓, Fabricio ↑,
73', Ferreira 🟨,
73', Thiago Santos 🟨,
84', Joao Felipe ↓, Adauto ↑,
90+6', 1 - 0, Bruno Baio (Pen),
90+7', Bruno Baio 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 3.

Sampaio Corrêa is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Confiança is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Sampaio Corrêa is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Sampaio Corrêa won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie C
17.08.24	Ypiranga - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
12.08.24	Sampaio Corrêa - ABC	2:2 ✺
05.08.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
27.07.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
22.07.24	Floresta - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTTTL
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
18.08.24	Confiança - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Confiança - Remo	1:0 ✺
03.08.24	Athletic Club - Confiança	3:0 ✺
31.07.24	Caxias - Confiança	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Confiança - Volta Redonda	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
17.09.21	Confiança - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0
19.06.21	Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança	3:1
19.01.21	Confiança - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1
21.10.20	Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança	1:3
Brazilian Serie C
21.09.19	Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança	1:0
14.09.19	Confiança - Sampaio Corrêa	0:2
30.06.19	Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança	1:1

Sampaio Corrêa - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide