Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Athletic Club		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.3	4.5	8.5
	1.3	4.5	9.5	Watch
	1.31	4.84	10
	1.31	4.34	10.33	Watch
	1.25	4.5	9.5
	1.29	4.55	9.85	Watch
	1.3	4.5	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.38)	4.53 ↑ (4.2)	9.6 ↑ (7.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
70.4%

Draw
20.1%

Confiança
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

21.8%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

20.9%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+2%)

Athletic Club - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glauco (G) 21. Alason Carioca 3. Danilo Cardoso 10. David Braga 25. Diego Fumaca (C) 50. Douglas Pele 4. Edson Miranda 17. Nathan 9. Neto Costa 18. Rafael Conceicao 7. Welinton Torrao	1. Jeferson Souza (G) 8. Andre 11. Eduardo 4. Eduardo Junho 5. Fabio Silva 9. Hyuri 10. Italo 2. Lucas Mendes 3. Raphael 6. Robson (C) 7. Willians Santana
Substitutes
19. Denilson 26. Diego Vitor (G) 16. Geovane 12. Jefferson Luis (G) 20. Lucas Mineiro 13. Reginaldo 22. Ryan Henrique 15. Sidimar 14. Victor Sallinas 2. Ynaia 6. Yuri	14. Adryan 13. Afonso 21. Douglas 15. Felippe Borges 20. Julio Rusch 16. Junior 18. Luiz Otavio 17. Riquelmo 12. Thiago Braga (G) 19. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Roger Silva	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Douglas Pele ⚽,
15', Willians Santana 🟨,
20', Robson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rafael Conceicao ↓, Ynaia ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Douglas Pele ⚽,
61', Welinton Torrao ↓, Denilson ↑,
61', Neto Costa ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
64', Eduardo ↓, Douglas ↑,
64', Willians Santana ↓, Riquelmo ↑,
64', Andre ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
67', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
67', Diego Fumaca 🟨,
72', David Braga ↓, Ryan Henrique ↑,
72', Alason Carioca ↓, Geovane ↑,
77', Felippe Borges 🟨,
77', Italo ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
77', Robson ↓, Felippe Borges ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Lucas Mineiro ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 14).

Athletic is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Confiança is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Confiança could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Athletic have a series of guest games.

In this match Athletic is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie C
27.07.24	Tombense - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
21.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
13.07.24	Athletic Club - Londrina	2:1 ✺
07.07.24	Figueirense - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
04.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTWTW
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
31.07.24	Caxias - Confiança	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Confiança - Volta Redonda	4:1 ✺
22.07.24	Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
13.07.24	Botafogo PB - Confiança	3:3 ✺
07.07.24	Confiança - Ypiranga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTTW

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