Match Info

Date: 30 September 2022, Friday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Referee: Traci R. (Bra)


	Sampaio Corrêa		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.95	2.7
	2.55	2.85	2.85
	2.65	2.95	2.65
	2.87	3.04	2.86
	2.7	2.9	2.75
	2.68	3	2.75	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (3.4)	2.94 ↑ (2.88)	2.76 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
34.7%

Draw
31.6%

Grêmio
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

32.8%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

32.6%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sampaio Corrêa's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sampaio Corrêa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	59.1%	13.6%

Sampaio Corrêa - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa will win (votes: 12 - 27.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 6 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 59.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.6% – 73.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Grêmio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Grêmio: Campaz J. (Injury) Janderson (Injury) Kannemann W. (Injury) Nicolas Vichiatto (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Sampaio Corrêa	1:3 ✺
17.09.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
07.09.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
03.09.22	Guarani - Sampaio Corrêa	3:0 ✺
30.08.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTWLT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie B
20.09.22	Grêmio - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
16.09.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
11.09.22	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
02.09.22	Grêmio - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
30.08.22	Criciúma - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.06.22	Grêmio - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0

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