Match Info

Serie B - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Sampdoria		Cesena

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.82	Watch
	2.45	3	2.95
	2.52	2.98	2.88
	2.56	3	3.18
	30.00	14.21	1.01	Watch
	2.61	3	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.12 ↑ (2.45)	4.87 ↑ (3.01)	2.63 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampdoria
19.4%

Draw
28.3%

Cesena
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

31%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

30.8%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampdoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sampdoria's form might have worsened.

Cesena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cesena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sampdoria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (-21.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cesena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Sampdoria - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sampdoria will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Cesena will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sampdoria (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sampdoria (1.80) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sampdoria (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Cesena (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Coucke G. (G) 18. Venuti L. 5. Riccio A. 31. Vulikic S. 44. Ioannou N. 33. Conti F. 28. Abildgaard O. 16. Henderson L. 72. Barak A. 11. Pedrola E. 9. Coda M. (C)	33. Klinsmann J. (G) 15. Ciofi A. (C) 19. Zaro G. 24. Mangraviti M. 11. Ciervo R. 14. Berti T. 4. Castagnetti M. 25. Bisoli D. 99. Frabotta G. 7. Blesa J. 9. Shpendi C.
Substitutes
14. Bellemo A. 80. Benedetti L. 10. Cherubini L. 15. Coubis A. 7. Cuni M. 23. Depaoli F. 4. Ferri J. 1. Ghidotti S. (G) 21. Giordano S. 17. Hadzikadunic D. 70. Narro V. 20. Pafundi S.	17. Adamo E. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 29. Balde S. 10. Bastoni S. 13. Celia R. 70. Francesconi M. 18. Guidi M. 23. Magni V. 32. Olivieri M. 26. Piacentini M. 1. Siano A. (G)
Coaches
Donati M.	Mignani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Vulikic S. 🟨,
24', Riccio A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Castagnetti M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Conti F. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
51', Pedrola E. ↓, Cherubini L. ↑,
53', 0 - 2, Zaro G. ⚽,
56', Henderson L. 🟨,
69', Barak A. ↓, Pafundi S. ↑,
69', Venuti L. ↓, Depaoli F. ↑,
71', Shpendi C. 🟨,
77', Ciervo R. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
78', Bisoli D. ↓, Francesconi M. ↑,
81', Berti T. 🟨,
83', Henderson L. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
83', Berti T. ↓, Bastoni S. ↑,
83', Shpendi C. ↓, Balde S. ↑,
85', Depaoli F. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Ioannou N. ⚽, Pafundi S. (A),

Preview

Sampdoria has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cesena has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Sampdoria: Altare G. (Knee Injury) Barak A. (Injury) Malagrida L. (Ankle Injury) Romagnoli S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sampdoria won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sampdoria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Sampdoria - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Cesena - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.77%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
31.08.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Sampdoria - Modena	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Sampdoria - Pontedera	1:0 ✺
06.08.25	Sampdoria - Novara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWT
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
30.08.25	Cesena - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Pescara - Cesena	1:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Cesena - Pisa	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Mantova - Cesena	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Forlì - Cesena	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
17.01.25	Sampdoria - Cesena	1:2
20.10.24	Cesena - Sampdoria	3:5
Italian Serie A
18.04.15	Sampdoria - Cesena	0:0
23.11.14	Cesena - Sampdoria	1:1

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