Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova)

Referee: Zanotti A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Mantova		Cesena

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.85	Watch
	2.35	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.46	3.3	3.13
	2.39	3.27	2.95	Watch
	2.3	3	2.9
	2.4	3.18	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.57)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	2.95 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
39.3%

Draw
29%

Cesena
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

27.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

27.6%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Cesena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	50%	5.6%

Mantova - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Cesena will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cesena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 13. Meroni A. 27. Castellini A. 21. Trimboli S. 29. Cella S. 80. Kouda R. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 23. Marras T. 77. Buso N. 7. Mensah D. (C)	33. Klinsmann J. (G) 15. Ciofi A. (C) 19. Zaro G. 26. Piacentini M. 27. Corazza T. 18. Guidi M. 70. Francesconi M. 11. Ciervo R. 14. Berti T. 9. Shpendi C. 22. Vrioni G.
Substitutes
28. Caprini M. 5. Chrysopoulos K. 18. Falletti C. 15. Goncalves T. 96. Maggioni T. 9. Mancuso L. 11. Muci N. 36. Paoletti F. 17. Radaelli N. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.	28. Abbondanza S. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 10. Bastoni S. 25. Bisoli D. 7. Cerri A. 74. Domeniconi R. 40. Ferretti L. (G) 44. Kebbeh M. 32. Olivieri M. 1. Siano A. (G)
Coaches
Modesto F.	Cole A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Zaro G. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', Guidi M. 🟨,
53', Ciofi A. 🟨,
55', Piacentini M. 🟨,
58', 2 - 0, Meroni A. ⚽, Castellini A. (A),
60', Vrioni G. ↓, Cerri A. ↑,
62', Trimboli S. 🟨,
62', Dembele A. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
63', Corazza T. ↓, Olivieri M. ↑,
63', Ciervo R. ↓, Bastoni S. ↑,
69', Mensah D. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
69', Buso N. ↓, Caprini M. ↑,
75', Francesconi M. ↓, Bisoli D. ↑,
75', Piacentini M. ↓, Amoran P. ↑,
82', Marras T. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
82', Trimboli S. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 0, Mancuso L. ⚽, Falletti C. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 15 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1.

Recent performances by Mantova have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cesena has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Injury) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Muci N. (Inactive) Ruocco F. (Inactive) Zuccon F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cesena: Castrovilli G. (Inactive) Frabotta G. (Inactive) Magni V. (Injury) Mangraviti M. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Mantova: 2.45% Cesena: 0.55%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Mantova	6	4	2	0	13:6	7	14
11	Cesena	6	1	4	1	7:8	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mantova - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.08%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
14.03.26	Empoli - Mantova	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Mantova - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mantova - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Mantova - Sampdoria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWLTW
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
14.03.26	Cesena - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Modena - Cesena	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Cesena - Monza	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Empoli - Cesena	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Cesena - Spezia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.12.25	Cesena - Mantova	3:2
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Mantova - Cesena	1:2
Italian Serie B
01.05.25	Mantova - Cesena	3:0
29.09.24	Cesena - Mantova	4:2
Italian Super Cup Serie C
05.05.24	Mantova - Cesena	1:2
Italian Serie C Group A
08.05.21	Cesena - Mantova	2:1
Italian Serie C Group B
03.04.21	Cesena - Mantova	0:0

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