Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Torero Stadium (San Diego)

Referee: Koroleva E. (Usa)


	San Diego Loyal		El Paso Locomotive

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.5	3.8
	1.71	3.7	4.2
	1.82	3.7	4.1
	1.78	3.62	4.05	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.64)	3.68 ↓ (3.8)	4.11 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego Loyal
52.7%

Draw
24.9%

El Paso Locomotive
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.9%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

25.8%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego Loyal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

El Paso Locomotive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Diego Loyal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

San Diego Loyal - El Paso Locomotive Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

San Diego Loyal has the most likely position - 1 (18.25%), project points - 57, currently - 14, a good chance of playoffs (93%), a good chance of qtrs (55%), a chance of semis (29%), a small chance of final (15%), a small chance of win league (9%).

El Paso has the most likely position - 8 (11.89%), project points - 46, currently - 10, a good chance of playoffs (65%), a chance of qtrs (25%), a small chance of semis (11%), a very small chance of final (5%), a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has small quality 20, small importance 14, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

San Diego Loyal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match San Diego Loyal is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Diego Loyal won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams San Diego Loyal won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego Loyal
US Open Cup
26.04.23	Seattle Sounders - San Diego Loyal	5:4 ✺
USL Championship
23.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	New Mexico United - San Diego Loyal	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tulsa	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
05.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Albion San Diego	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWTWW
- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
22.04.23	El Paso Locomotive - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2:0 ✺
08.04.23	El Paso Locomotive - Orange County SC	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
05.04.23	Union Omaha - El Paso Locomotive	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
31.03.23	Tulsa - El Paso Locomotive	2:2 ✺
25.03.23	Louisville City - El Paso Locomotive	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
20.08.22	El Paso Locomotive - San Diego Loyal	1:3
03.04.22	San Diego Loyal - El Paso Locomotive	3:2

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