Match Info

LPF - Clausura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Panama	Tigo Sports


	San Francisco		Alianza Panama

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.72	2.82
	2.17	3.31	3.18	Watch
	2.67	3.08	2.7
	2.6	2.88	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.17)	3 ↓ (3.31)	2.86 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Francisco
36.9%

Draw
30.8%

Alianza Panama
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

28%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

27.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Francisco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Francisco's form might have worsened.

Alianza Panama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Francisco than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Francisco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Panama than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

San Francisco - Alianza Panama Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Frias J. (G) 17. Benitez G. 19. Camargo M. 8. Carrasquilla E. 2. Edmund D. 5. Gargonia J. 3. Gondola E. 10. Pinzon D. 81. Ramirez A. 6. Rangel E. 27. Simmons V.	1. Gonzalez J. (G) 28. Alvarado J. 10. Diaz A. 2. Machado A. (C) 4. Merrit Y. 3. Ortega Y. 18. Perdomo R. 8. Rangel G. 22. Rodriguez M. 11. Verley R. 6. Wright D.
Substitutes
9. Blackburn R. 22. Chiari G. 1. Cruz X. (G) 38. Lashley W. 18. Rodriguez A. 20. Rodriguez E. 7. Samms E. 77. Sinisterra C. 15. Triana L. 75. Wood J.	17. Asprilla J. 14. Berguido R. 45. Campos O. 9. Espinoza I. 91. Gomez 7. Guardia H. 20. Herrera R. 13. Mendoza A. 16. Mitre R. 12. Spencer D.
Coaches
Valdes J. D.	Palacios J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Simmons V. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Verley R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Edmund D. ↓, Wood J. ↑,
55', Verley R. ↓, Guardia H. ↑,
58', Alvarado J. 🟨,
63', Ramirez A. ↓, Blackburn R. ↑,
64', Wright D. ↓, Asprilla J. ↑,
65', Gargonia J. 🟨,
72', Simmons V. ↓, Sinisterra C. ↑,
73', Camargo M. ↓, Triana L. ↑,
76', Rodriguez M. ↓, Mendoza A. ↑,
77', Merrit Y. ↓, Berguido R. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Gondola E. ⚽,
79', Diaz A. ↓, Spencer D. ↑,
83', Ortega Y. 🟨,
87', 1 - 2, Alvarado J. ⚽,
90', Rangel E. ↓, Chiari G. ↑,
90+2', Frias J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Francisco won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Alianza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

San Francisco could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, San Francisco won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:25. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, San Francisco won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Panama - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 29.19%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Francisco FC
Liga Panamena de Futbol
16.11.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	San Francisco - Veraguas	3:0 ✺
31.10.25	Independiente de la Chorrera - San Francisco	0:0 ✺
24.10.25	San Francisco - Herrera	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Deportivo Universitario - San Francisco	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWTWT
- Alianza Panama FC
Liga Panamena de Futbol
16.11.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1 ✺
12.11.25	Alianza Panama - Deportivo Universitario	3:2 penalties ✺
08.11.25	UMECIT - Alianza Panama	1:3 ✺
01.11.25	Alianza Panama - Árabe Unido	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Plaza Amador - Alianza Panama	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Panamena de Futbol
16.11.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1
15.09.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1
28.03.25	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:2
20.09.24	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	3:1
22.03.24	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:0
22.11.23	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:2 penalties
02.09.23	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	2:2

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