Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	San Marcial		Oyonesa

	1	X	2
	4.05	3.1	1.85
	4.09	3.24	1.87
	4.07	3.28	1.86
	3.8	3.1	1.85
	4.19	3.2	1.82
	4	3.14	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.12)	3.18 ↑ (2.97)	1.85 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Marcial
22.5%

Draw
28.6%

Oyonesa
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

30.6%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

29.7%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Marcial has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Marcial's form might have worsened.

Oyonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Oyonesa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcial than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Marcial, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oyonesa than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Oyonesa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

San Marcial - Oyonesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
72', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 16 (Play Offs: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Oyonesa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Oyonesa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, San Marcial won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	San Marcial	5	1	3	1	4:4	0	6
13	Oyonesa	5	1	2	2	5:7	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Oyonesa - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.34%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ACD San Marcial
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
18.01.26	Pradejón - San Marcial	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Anguiano - San Marcial	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	San Marcial - Haro Deportivo	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Agoncillo - San Marcial	3:2 ✺
13.12.25	San Marcial - Villegas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 TWWLL
- SD Oyonesa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
18.01.26	Oyonesa - La Calzada	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Oyonesa - Varea	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Peña Balsamaiso - Oyonesa	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Oyonesa - Autol	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Berceo - Oyonesa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
14.09.25	Oyonesa - San Marcial	2:1

San Marcial - Oyonesa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide