Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	San Marcial		Peña Balsamaiso

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.9	5.5
	1.49	4.09	5.83	Watch
	1.5	3.75	6
	1.53	4.22	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.45)	3.99 ↓ (4.15)	5.75 ↓ (5.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Marcial
61.1%

Draw
23%

Peña Balsamaiso
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

21.9%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

20.1%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Marcial has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Peña Balsamaiso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcial than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Balsamaiso than the current prediction. (+1%)

San Marcial - Peña Balsamaiso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+1', 🟥,
90+3', 🟥,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by San Marcial have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peña Balsamaiso is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, San Marcial is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, San Marcial won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	San Marcial	5	1	3	1	4:4	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ACD San Marcial
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
15.02.26	Autol - San Marcial	0:4 ✺
08.02.26	San Marcial - Berceo	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	UD Logroñés Promesas - San Marcial	5:0 ✺
25.01.26	San Marcial - Oyonesa	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Pradejón - San Marcial	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTLLT
- Peña Balsamaiso
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
15.02.26	Peña Balsamaiso - La Calzada	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Varea - Peña Balsamaiso	3:0 ✺
01.02.26	Peña Balsamaiso - Yagüe	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Peña Balsamaiso - Autol	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Berceo - Peña Balsamaiso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
12.10.25	Peña Balsamaiso - San Marcial	0:0

San Marcial - Peña Balsamaiso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide