Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 29

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Ciudadela (Tucuman)


	San Martín de Tucumán		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.6	3.3	6
	1.75	3.2	4.85	Watch
	1.84	3.3	5.15
	2.20	2.88	3.73	Watch
	1.62	3.3	6
	1.76	3.2	4.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.52)	3.23 ↓ (3.81)	5.06 ↓ (6.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Martín de Tucumán
52.4%

Draw
29.1%

Arsenal Sarandí
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

24.2%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

24.5%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Martín de Tucumán's form might have worsened.

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Martín de Tucumán, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

San Martín de Tucumán - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 4. Murillo F. 2. Rodriguez G. 6. Orellana J. 3. Paz A. 8. Vera U. 5. Garcia M. 10. Cuevas J. 7. Garcia F. 11. Castro N. 9. Pino M.	1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Purita E. 2. Roselli N. 6. Mihovilcevich L. 3. Serrano V. 8. Lucero M. 5. Colletta T. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Batista A. 7. Gonzalez T. 9. Sabatini I.
Substitutes
17. Cainelli N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 18. Hachen G. 15. Monje L. 16. Monroy G. 13. Penalba T. 19. Rodriguez G. 14. Soraire J. 20. Spetale A.	13. Amaya A. 18. Bordagaray F. 14. Cabrera I. 19. Klusener G. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 15. Payes A. 17. Rius C. 20. Sayago D. 16. Vila J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', Purita E. 🟨,
12', Serrano V. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Sabatini I. ⚽,
24', Orellana J. 🟨,
33', Murillo F. 🟨,
36', Colletta T. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Gonzalez T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Murillo F. ↓, Cainelli N. ↑,
46', Castro N. ↓, Hachen G. ↑,
60', Serrano V. ↓, Cabrera I. ↑,
66', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
68', 0 - 3, Sabatini I. (Pen),
72', Gonzalez T. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
72', Purita E. ↓, Sayago D. ↑,
74', Cuevas J. ↓, Spetale A. ↑,
75', Garcia M. 🟨,
82', Batista A. ↓, Rius C. ↑,
82', Lucero M. ↓, Vila J. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arsenal Sarandí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, San Martin T is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, San Martin T won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.08.25	All Boys - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0 ✺
20.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Maipú	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Deportivo Madryn - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - River Plate	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWTLL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.08.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Güemes	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Club Almagro - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1
24.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1
06.04.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0

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