Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 25

Date: 19 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Hardtwaldstadion (Sandhausen)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	Sandhausen		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.91	Watch
	4	3.5	1.93	Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.89
	3.75	3.45	1.9
	4.14	3.58	1.97
	4	3.4	1.88	Watch
	4.1	3.64	1.86	Watch
	4.1	3.55	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.43)	3.53 ↑ (3.47)	1.91 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sandhausen
23.6%

Draw
26.8%

St. Pauli
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

26.9%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

25.9%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sandhausen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sandhausen than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16%	12%	72%

Sandhausen - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Sandhausen will win (votes: 4 - 16%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 18 - 72%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 54.4% – 89.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 7).

Sandhausen has the most likely position - 18 (44.31%), project points - 32, currently - 21, a good chance of relegated (72%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 5 (20.79%), project points - 54, currently - 38, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (4%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 28, importance 35, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sandhausen won 1.

Sandhausen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

St. Pauli is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Sandhausen won 5 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 27-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Sandhausen won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Sandhausen
German 2 Bundesliga
10.03.23	Kaiserslautern - Sandhausen	2:2 ✺
04.03.23	Sandhausen - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	Nürnberg - Sandhausen	1:0 ✺
19.02.23	Sandhausen - Karlsruher	0:3 ✺
12.02.23	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Sandhausen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTLLL
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
11.03.23	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
03.03.23	Paderborn - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
26.02.23	St. Pauli - Hansa Rostock	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
12.02.23	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
11.09.22	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	1:1
16.04.22	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	1:1
24.11.21	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	3:1
05.02.21	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	2:1
02.10.20	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	1:0
08.03.20	Sandhausen - St. Pauli	2:2
29.09.19	St. Pauli - Sandhausen	2:0

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