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Current Win Probability
Santa Amalia 14.9%
Draw 23.7%
Jaraíz 61.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.1%
29.3%
37.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.6%
28.8%
38.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santa Amalia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Amalia's form might have worsened.
Jaraíz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jaraíz's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Amalia than the current prediction. (+17.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Amalia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaraíz than the current prediction. (-23.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jaraíz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Santa Amalia - Jaraíz Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
58', 0 - 2, ⚽,
63', 0 - 3, ⚽,
68', 1 - 3, ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 4, ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: )).
Santa Amalia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Jaraíz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Santa Amalia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santa Amalia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).
Including home match between the teams, Santa Amalia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
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