Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Puebla de la Calzada		Jaraíz

	1	X	2
	3.64	3.39	1.93
	3.6	3.44	1.93
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	3.6	3.25	1.94
	3.5	3.4	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (3.22)	3.32 ↑ (3.02)	1.93 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla de la Calzada
25.5%

Draw
27.4%

Jaraíz
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

29.1%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla de la Calzada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Jaraíz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jaraíz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla de la Calzada than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaraíz than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Puebla de la Calzada - Jaraíz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
85', 0 - 1, Cordeiro F. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: )).

Puebla has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jaraíz's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Puebla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jaraíz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Puebla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Puebla	5	2	2	1	8:4	4	8
14	Jaraiz	5	1	1	3	6:9	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla de la Calzada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
18.01.26	Puebla de la Calzada - Villanovense	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Puebla de la Calzada - Cabeza del Buey	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Llerenense - Puebla de la Calzada	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pueblonuevo - Puebla de la Calzada	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTLTL
- CF Jaraíz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
25.01.26	Jerez - Jaraíz	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Jaraíz - Montehermoso	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Jaraíz - Villanovense	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Cabeza del Buey - Jaraíz	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Jaraíz - Llerenense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
21.09.25	Jaraíz - Puebla de la Calzada	0:1
03.11.24	Puebla de la Calzada - Jaraíz	0:1

Puebla de la Calzada - Jaraíz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide