Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 3 April 2025, Thursday


	Santa Cruz PFA		Desamparados

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	1.95
	2.5	3.2	2.6
	2.51	3.44	2.66	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.05
	2.41	3.35	2.52
	2.5	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.88)	3.27 ↓ (3.47)	2.4 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz PFA
33.4%

Draw
28.2%

Desamparados
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

26.3%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

25.6%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz PFA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santa Cruz PFA's performance.

Desamparados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Desamparados might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz PFA than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Cruz PFA that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desamparados than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Desamparados could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Cruz PFA - Desamparados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 🟥,
32', 0 - 1, Clausen M. ⚽,
36', 0 - 2, Reyes A. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
80', 1 - 3, Casanova A. ⚽,
84', 1 - 4, Ocampo B. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Ascenso (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Antioquia has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Desamparados is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Desamparados could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Desamparados have a series of home games.

Desamparados will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Antioquia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Antioquia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz PFA
Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
30.03.25	Aserrí - Santa Cruz PFA	2:0 ✺
24.03.25	Santa Cruz PFA - Uruguay de Coronado	2:6 ✺
20.03.25	Turrialba - Santa Cruz PFA	1:1 ✺
17.03.25	Santa Cruz PFA - Guadalupe	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Limon Black Star - Santa Cruz PFA	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Fútbol Consultants Desamparados
Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
31.03.25	Desamparados - Escorpiones de Belén	3:2 ✺
14.03.25	Desamparados - Uruguay de Coronado	2:1 ✺
10.03.25	Turrialba - Desamparados	1:6 ✺
05.03.25	Desamparados - Guadalupe	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Desamparados - Limon Black Star	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Costa Rican Liga de Ascenso
19.02.25	Desamparados - Santa Cruz PFA	1:2
21.10.24	Desamparados - Santa Cruz PFA	0:0
04.09.24	Santa Cruz PFA - Desamparados	1:0

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